RACE:MILFerrari NV Analysis

Ferrari (RACE.MI) is trading at €301.55, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA of €288.5 and still below the 50‑day SMA of €291.9, while the 200‑day SMA sits near €333.7, indicating a medium‑term bearish bias. The RSI of 58 suggests momentum is not yet overbought, and the MACD histogram is positive (≈1.8) with a bullish signal line crossover, hinting at a possible short‑term rebound. Recent earnings have outperformed expectations – EPS of €2.69 beat forecasts by 13.5% and revenue rose 6% YoY at constant currency – and management reaffirmed full‑year guidance, reinforcing confidence in the business. Despite these strengths, the DCF‑derived fair value of roughly €77 is far below the current price, and valuation multiples (P/E ≈ 33, P/B ≈ 13) are markedly premium, flagging an overvalued condition.
The balance sheet remains solid with a modest debt‑to‑equity of 72%, ample cash, and a free cash flow generation of nearly €1 bn, supporting a 1.2% dividend yield and a payout ratio of just 33%. Low beta (≈0.4) and stable trading volume temper market‑risk concerns, though the 30‑day volatility of over 30% and a historical max drawdown near 38% underscore the stock’s susceptibility to sharp moves. Given the luxury‑auto sector’s sensitivity to economic cycles, regulatory shifts toward electrification, and exposure to multiple currencies, investors should weigh the strong brand and earnings momentum against the pronounced valuation gap and cyclical risk.