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QQEW:NASDAQFirst Trust Nasdaq-100 Select Equal Weight ETF Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-19 - not real-time

$144.49

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

The First Trust Nasdaq‑100 Select Equal Weight ETF is trading at $144.49, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA of $141.14 and its 200‑day SMA of $138.30, yet still below the identified resistance level of $145.64 and well above the support of $134.71. Momentum indicators show a moderately bullish stance – the RSI sits at 66.2 and the MACD line is bullish, with a small positive histogram of 0.08 – while the fund’s beta of 1.13 and a 30‑day volatility of 17.45% signal heightened sensitivity to market swings. The Fear/Greed Index of 89.18 (Extreme Greed) combined with a decreasing volume trend and a historical max drawdown of –15.86% underscores a market environment where optimism may be priced in, but downside risk remains notable.
Liquidity is moderate, with current daily volume of 56,855 against a 10‑day average of 42,420, and the ETF’s equal‑weight Nasdaq‑100 exposure creates a high sector concentration risk despite a zero tracking error and expense ratio of 0.55%. Investors should weigh the strong growth‑sector tilt, elevated beta, and recent price momentum against the potential for a pull‑back from the resistance zone, especially given the fund’s modest dividend yield of 0.32% and its positioning within a high‑greed market context.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • price near resistance ($145.64) with limited immediate upside
  • RSI at 66.2 indicating moderate strength but not overbought
  • decreasing volume trend reducing short‑term liquidity

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • beta of 1.13 amplifies market movements
  • Extreme Greed index (89.18) suggests over‑optimistic sentiment
  • high concentration in large‑cap growth sector raises systematic risk

Long Term

> 3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 4/10

Key Factors

  • equal‑weight Nasdaq‑100 exposure leads to sector concentration risk
  • historical max drawdown of –15.86% signals notable downside potential
  • 30‑day volatility of 17.45% is elevated for a core equity ETF

Key Metrics & Analysis

Fund Metrics

Expense Ratio0.55%
AUM$1.6B
Inception Date2006-04-19
Avg Daily Volume42,420
Premium/Discount0.00%
Tracking Error0.00%
Dividend Yield0.32%

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI66.2
Support$134.71
Resistance$145.64
MA 20$141.14
MA 50$134.75
MA 200$138.30
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.18

Risk Assessment

Beta1.13
Volatility17.45%
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.