We use cookies to analyze site traffic and improve your experience.
By accepting, you consent to the use of analytics cookies.

QFIN:NASDAQQfin Holdings, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-16 - not real-time

$13.84

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Qfin Holdings appears dramatically undervalued – the market price trades at a fraction of its intrinsic estimate, offering a striking upside potential. The company delivers a very low price‑to‑earnings multiple compared with peers, coupled with a high dividend yield that is supported by ample cash generation and a modest payout ratio. Fundamentals are solid: revenue is growing robustly, margins are healthy, and return on equity is strong, while cash on hand comfortably exceeds debt.
Technical indicators, however, paint a bearish near‑term picture: the stock sits below its short‑term moving averages, the RSI is in the low‑30s, and the MACD histogram remains negative, all amid decreasing volume. Volatility is elevated and the price is hovering near a key support level, suggesting short‑term downside risk. Nonetheless, the combination of a massive valuation gap, sustainable dividend, and AI‑driven growth platform supports a longer‑term buying case, provided investors are comfortable with regulatory and geographic headwinds in China.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • price is near immediate support
  • bearish MACD and low RSI signal continued weakness
  • high dividend yield provides some cushion

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • significant valuation upside versus intrinsic estimate
  • strong earnings growth and margin expansion
  • sustainable dividend supports total return

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • AI‑driven credit‑tech platform offers durable competitive advantage
  • large addressable market in China's consumer credit space
  • undervalued price relative to long‑term growth prospects

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth19.10%
Profit Margin35.15%
P/E Ratio1.9
ROE29.12%
ROA10.77%
Debt/Equity28.49
P/B Ratio0.5
Op. Cash Flow$11.0B
Free Cash Flow$-2013325184
Industry P/E16.4

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI33.7
Support$13.81
Resistance$16.09
MA 20$14.78
MA 50$15.98
MA 200$26.88
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88

Valuation

Fair Value$1,688.28
Target Price$29.44
Upside/Downside112.73%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield10.55%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.87
Volatility41.90%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskHigh
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.