QFIN:NASDAQQfin Holdings, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-16 - not real-time
$13.84
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Qfin Holdings appears dramatically undervalued – the market price trades at a fraction of its intrinsic estimate, offering a striking upside potential. The company delivers a very low price‑to‑earnings multiple compared with peers, coupled with a high dividend yield that is supported by ample cash generation and a modest payout ratio. Fundamentals are solid: revenue is growing robustly, margins are healthy, and return on equity is strong, while cash on hand comfortably exceeds debt.
Technical indicators, however, paint a bearish near‑term picture: the stock sits below its short‑term moving averages, the RSI is in the low‑30s, and the MACD histogram remains negative, all amid decreasing volume. Volatility is elevated and the price is hovering near a key support level, suggesting short‑term downside risk. Nonetheless, the combination of a massive valuation gap, sustainable dividend, and AI‑driven growth platform supports a longer‑term buying case, provided investors are comfortable with regulatory and geographic headwinds in China.
Technical indicators, however, paint a bearish near‑term picture: the stock sits below its short‑term moving averages, the RSI is in the low‑30s, and the MACD histogram remains negative, all amid decreasing volume. Volatility is elevated and the price is hovering near a key support level, suggesting short‑term downside risk. Nonetheless, the combination of a massive valuation gap, sustainable dividend, and AI‑driven growth platform supports a longer‑term buying case, provided investors are comfortable with regulatory and geographic headwinds in China.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- price is near immediate support
- bearish MACD and low RSI signal continued weakness
- high dividend yield provides some cushion
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- significant valuation upside versus intrinsic estimate
- strong earnings growth and margin expansion
- sustainable dividend supports total return
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- AI‑driven credit‑tech platform offers durable competitive advantage
- large addressable market in China's consumer credit space
- undervalued price relative to long‑term growth prospects
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth19.10%
Profit Margin35.15%
P/E Ratio1.9
ROE29.12%
ROA10.77%
Debt/Equity28.49
P/B Ratio0.5
Op. Cash Flow$11.0B
Free Cash Flow$-2013325184
Industry P/E16.4
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI33.7
Support$13.81
Resistance$16.09
MA 20$14.78
MA 50$15.98
MA 200$26.88
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88
Valuation
Fair Value$1,688.28
Target Price$29.44
Upside/Downside112.73%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield10.55%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.87
Volatility41.90%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskHigh
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.