PROV:NASDAQProvident Financial Holdings, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-08-26 - not real-time
$18.31
Latest Price
4/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
At $18.30, Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. shows a bullish moving-average alignment, with shorter averages sitting above longer ones. Across the trailing 30 sessions it gained 6.5%. Momentum indicators put RSI at 73.8 (overbought) with MACD reading bullish. Price has been bracketed by support at $17.50 and resistance at $18.50.
On valuation the read is fair — earnings multiple of 17.8 versus a 17.1 sector average, in line with the peer group. Revenue is growing at 10.3% on a 16.4% profit margin. The 3.07% dividend yield looks covered by current payout levels.
Risk comes out at 4 of a possible 10, a moderate reading. With 30-day volatility of 10.0%, a beta of 0.13 and a maximum drawdown of 6.2%, position sizing matters here. Thin trading volumes mean execution costs can be material on larger orders. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 94 on the fear-greed composite.
All three time horizons resolve to buy, carrying 6/10 conviction.
On valuation the read is fair — earnings multiple of 17.8 versus a 17.1 sector average, in line with the peer group. Revenue is growing at 10.3% on a 16.4% profit margin. The 3.07% dividend yield looks covered by current payout levels.
Risk comes out at 4 of a possible 10, a moderate reading. With 30-day volatility of 10.0%, a beta of 0.13 and a maximum drawdown of 6.2%, position sizing matters here. Thin trading volumes mean execution costs can be material on larger orders. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 94 on the fear-greed composite.
All three time horizons resolve to buy, carrying 6/10 conviction.
Top Market Events
Provident Financial Holdings Inc PROV reports higher loan yields and lower borrowing costs, driving margin expansion...Regional bank crushes estimates with a 27% EPS beat as its net interest margin expanded for the fourth straight quarter...RIVERSIDE, Calif., July 23, 2026 GLOBE NEWSWIRE -- Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. 'Company” , NASDAQ GS: PROV,...
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked above long-term ones
- RSI at 73.8 signals overbought conditions
- Trading above the 200-day average of 16.57
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked above long-term ones
- RSI at 73.8 signals overbought conditions
- P/E of 17.8 versus sector average of 17.1
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- P/E of 17.8 versus sector average of 17.1
- Profit margin of 16.4% is healthy
- Revenue growth of +10.3%
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth10.30%
Profit Margin16.39%
P/E Ratio17.8
ROE5.22%
ROA0.54%
P/B Ratio0.9
Industry P/E17.1
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI73.8
Support$17.50
Resistance$18.50
MA 20$17.97
MA 50$17.48
MA 200$16.57
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index93.84
Valuation
Target Price$18.50
Upside/Downside1.07%
GradeFair
TypeValue
Dividend Yield3.07%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.13
Volatility9.99%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskHigh
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.