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PRI:NYSEPrimerica, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-22 - not real-time

$281.00

Latest Price

4/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Primerica (PRI) trades at $281, well below its DCF-derived fair value of roughly $593 and under the industry average P/E of 16.7, indicating a substantial valuation gap. The company delivered an 8.6% YoY revenue increase to $872.7 M in Q1 2026 and posted non‑GAAP EPS of $5.96, beating consensus by 8.7%, underscoring robust top‑line momentum and earnings resilience. With a trailing P/E of 11.8, a forward P/E of 10.6, a dividend yield of 1.59% and a modest payout ratio of 18%, the dividend appears sustainable given strong free cash flow of $1.07 B and a debt‑to‑equity of 73.8% that remains manageable.
Technically, the stock sits above its 20‑day SMA ($276.4) and 50‑day SMA ($266.0), the MACD line is bullish over its signal, and the RSI at 59 signals room for upside without overbought pressure. Support near $265.8 holds firm, while resistance at $286.7 aligns with recent highs, suggesting a near‑term upside target. Combined with a low beta (~0.58) and moderate 30‑day volatility (20.5%), the risk‑adjusted profile is attractive, supporting a short‑ to medium‑term buying bias.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish MACD crossover and price above 20‑day SMA
  • Support holding at $265.8 with upside to $286.7
  • Recent earnings beat reinforcing momentum

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Significant valuation upside vs DCF fair value
  • Consistent revenue growth and strong cash generation
  • Sustainable dividend with low payout ratio

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Stable business model serving middle‑income households
  • Low beta and modest volatility offering defensive qualities
  • Regulatory and insurance‑sector headwinds that may temper price appreciation

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth8.10%
Profit Margin22.61%
P/E Ratio11.8
ROE32.34%
ROA4.63%
Debt/Equity73.79
P/B Ratio3.5
Op. Cash Flow$860.5M
Free Cash Flow$1.1B
Industry P/E16.7

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI59.5
Support$265.79
Resistance$286.74
MA 20$276.41
MA 50$265.98
MA 200$263.71
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.5

Valuation

Fair Value$592.96
Target Price$298.50
Upside/Downside6.23%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.59%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.58
Volatility20.51%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.