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PM:NYSEPhilip Morris International Inc Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-21 - not real-time

$188.63

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Philip Morris International is riding a wave of bullish technical signals, with short‑term moving averages comfortably above longer‑term averages and a momentum‑driven MACD crossing confirming upward pressure. The recent FDA guidance that eases enforcement on its nicotine products has sparked a notable price rally, while the stock remains near its 52‑week high, supported by strong operating margins and a robust dividend yield.
The valuation appears stretched relative to intrinsic estimates, but the company’s cash‑generating capacity, high payout ratio, and continued rollout of smoke‑free offerings provide a solid dividend foundation and growth narrative. Investors should weigh the upside from regulatory tailwinds against the premium pricing and inherent sector risks.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Favorable FDA guidance boosting sentiment
  • Bullish MACD and price above key support
  • Increasing volume confirming momentum

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Steady revenue growth driven by smoke‑free portfolio
  • High dividend yield providing income cushion
  • Valuation premium relative to discounted cash‑flow estimate

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Long‑term regulatory uncertainty in tobacco markets
  • Sustained cash flow supporting dividend payouts
  • Potential upside from global expansion of reduced‑risk products

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth9.10%
Profit Margin26.74%
P/E Ratio26.9
ROA15.46%
P/B Ratio-29.4
Op. Cash Flow$12.2B
Free Cash Flow$8.6B

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI67.6
Support$160.67
Resistance$193.05
MA 20$175.79
MA 50$168.05
MA 200$165.23
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.29

Valuation

Fair Value$73.87
Target Price$192.79
Upside/Downside2.20%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.07%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.01
Volatility36.43%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.