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PLNT:NYSEPlanet Fitness, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-14 - not real-time

$51.01

Latest Price

8/10Risk

Risk Level: High

Executive Summary

Planet Fitness is trading at $51.01, well below its 200‑day SMA of $87.42 and with a 30‑day volatility of 115%, indicating a steep bearish technical backdrop. Revenue growth remains robust at 19.7% YoY and margins are healthy (gross 58.8%, operating 32.5%, profit 17.8%), yet the balance sheet is strained: total debt of $2.94 B dwarfs cash of $0.47 B and book value per share is negative ($‑6.09), flagging equity erosion. DCF analysis places fair value near $29.40, suggesting the stock is significantly overvalued relative to intrinsic estimates.
Compounding the financial stress, recent headlines detail a **potential securities‑fraud investigation** tied to a 31% share‑price plunge and weaker-than‑expected FY 2026 outlook, while volume trends are decreasing. Although Q1 2026 showed a 21.9% sales increase and a modest CEO share purchase, the confluence of high volatility, regulatory scrutiny, and overvaluation outweighs the short‑term upside, urging caution.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Pending securities‑fraud investigation
  • Bearish technical indicators (price below all SMAs, RSI 39)
  • Significant overvaluation vs DCF fair value

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Strong revenue growth and operating margins
  • High debt load and negative equity
  • Volatility and decreasing volume

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Potential for franchise expansion and margin stability
  • Regulatory outcome uncertainty
  • Valuation gap may narrow if fundamentals improve

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth19.70%
Profit Margin17.77%
P/E Ratio18.4
ROA8.37%
P/B Ratio-8.4
Op. Cash Flow$432.0M
Free Cash Flow$161.7M

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI39.0
Support$49.16
Resistance$55.03
MA 20$51.83
MA 50$59.95
MA 200$87.42
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.86

Valuation

Fair Value$29.41
Target Price$66.64
Upside/Downside30.64%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth

Risk Assessment

Beta0.48
Volatility115.23%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.