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PLMR:NASDAQPalomar Holdings, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-24 - not real-time

$126.07

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Palomar Holdings is delivering exceptional top‑line momentum, with revenue climbing 62.7% year‑over‑year and operating margins near 29%, translating into a strong 22.5% profit margin and a ROE above 23%. The balance sheet is virtually debt‑free (total debt ≈ $7 M) and cash‑rich, while the forward earnings estimate pushes the PE down to 11.4×, well below the current 17.6× and the industry average of 17.3×. Analysts are bullish, rating the stock a "buy" with a median price target of $161.5, implying roughly 30% upside to the current $126 price, and JP Morgan has recently lifted its target to $160. Technical signals are mixed: the price sits just below the 20‑day SMA (126.5) but above the 50‑ and 200‑day averages, RSI is neutral at 48.8, and MACD has turned bearish, suggesting short‑term caution. Volatility is elevated at 31.9% over 30 days, yet beta is low (0.27), indicating limited market‑wide risk. The company’s fee‑based platform, rising crop premiums, and Surety expansion—highlighted in recent news—support the growth narrative and reinforce the valuation upside.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price marginally below 20‑day SMA
  • Bearish MACD histogram
  • High short‑term volatility

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Strong revenue growth and expanding margins
  • Undervalued relative to DCF fair value and analyst targets
  • Robust cash position and minimal debt

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Sustainable fee‑based business model and reinsurance strategy
  • Consistently high ROE and low beta indicating defensive characteristics
  • Long‑term upside potential of ~30% with supportive analyst outlook

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth62.70%
Profit Margin22.50%
P/E Ratio17.6
ROE23.58%
ROA5.97%
Debt/Equity0.75
P/B Ratio3.5
Op. Cash Flow$409.1M
Free Cash Flow$353.9M
Industry P/E17.3

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI48.8
Support$115.23
Resistance$136.22
MA 20$126.54
MA 50$124.24
MA 200$124.21
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index88.02

Valuation

Fair Value$495.88
Target Price$164.17
Upside/Downside30.22%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend

Risk Assessment

Beta0.27
Volatility31.86%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.