PKG:NYSEPackaging Corporation of America Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-22 - not real-time
$213.76
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Packaging Corporation of America is trading in a bullish technical environment with price above short‑term support, while the 20‑day and 50‑day moving averages sit comfortably below the current level. Momentum indicators show mixed signals – the MACD has turned bearish but the RSI hovers near the neutral zone, and trading volume has been tapering.
Fundamentally, the company delivers solid double‑digit revenue growth, healthy operating margins and a respectable dividend yield that is backed by positive operating cash flow and a payout ratio below two‑thirds. Recent analyst coverage upgraded the outlook to "Buy" and set price targets well above today’s price, reflecting confidence in earnings momentum and improving box demand. However, a discounted cash‑flow model suggests the stock is markedly overvalued relative to intrinsic value, raising caution for long‑term investors.
Fundamentally, the company delivers solid double‑digit revenue growth, healthy operating margins and a respectable dividend yield that is backed by positive operating cash flow and a payout ratio below two‑thirds. Recent analyst coverage upgraded the outlook to "Buy" and set price targets well above today’s price, reflecting confidence in earnings momentum and improving box demand. However, a discounted cash‑flow model suggests the stock is markedly overvalued relative to intrinsic value, raising caution for long‑term investors.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price is above immediate support but MACD signals weakening momentum
- Decreasing volume suggests less conviction from traders
- Proximity to identified resistance level could cap upside
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Strong earnings beat and upgraded analyst outlook
- Robust revenue growth and improving demand for corrugated packaging
- Attractive dividend yield supported by solid cash flow
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Discounted cash‑flow valuation indicates a sizable gap to current price
- Cyclical nature of consumer packaging adds demand volatility
- Sustainable dividend and steady cash generation provide downside protection
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth10.60%
Profit Margin8.04%
P/E Ratio26.0
ROE16.31%
ROA8.37%
Debt/Equity95.19
P/B Ratio4.1
Op. Cash Flow$1.5B
Free Cash Flow$391.4M
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI48.5
Support$202.93
Resistance$231.27
MA 20$217.19
MA 50$212.90
MA 200$212.31
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.5
Valuation
Fair Value$46.43
Target Price$235.90
Upside/Downside10.36%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield2.81%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.75
Volatility35.62%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.