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PINE:NYSEAlpine Income Property Trust, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-24 - not real-time

$19.83

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Alpine Income Property Trust (PINE) trades at $19.83, just above its 20‑day SMA of 19.02 and 50‑day SMA of 19.23, while the 200‑day SMA sits at 16.53, indicating a short‑term bullish bias. The MACD is bullish (0.25 above signal) and the RSI of 61.6 suggests momentum but not overbought conditions. The REIT offers an attractive 5.87% dividend yield with a modest 14% payout ratio, yet profitability is weak – a negative profit margin of -4.4% and a trailing EPS of -0.08. Cash generation is strained, highlighted by a large negative free cash flow of -$83.6 M and a high debt‑to‑equity of 129.8%. The DCF fair‑value estimate of $12.56 implies only a modest upside of about 5.4% over the current price, while the price‑to‑FFO proxy of 13.56 is elevated relative to peers.
Recent material news shows the company meeting Q1 2026 FFO expectations at $0.53 per share, originating a $32 M loan at a 13% interest rate, completing $74 M of gross investment activity at a 14% blended yield, and raising $36 M of equity via an ATM program. Analyst sentiment has improved, with Raymond James upgrading its outlook. These actions demonstrate proactive capital management and support dividend sustainability, but the underlying leverage and cash‑flow deficits remain key concerns for long‑term investors.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • High dividend yield and low payout ratio support near‑term cash returns
  • Price near resistance level of $20.01 with bullish technical indicators
  • Elevated leverage and negative free cash flow increase downside risk

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Management’s active capital deployment (loan origination, equity raise) may improve cash flow
  • Persistent negative earnings and high debt‑to‑equity constrain profitability
  • Modest upside potential versus DCF fair value limits price appreciation

Long Term

> 3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Negative profit margin and trailing EPS indicate ongoing earnings weakness
  • Large negative free cash flow and high debt levels threaten dividend sustainability
  • Current price exceeds DCF fair value, suggesting limited long‑term upside

Key Metrics & Analysis

REIT Metrics

P/FFO13.557307238272756

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI61.6
Support$17.81
Resistance$20.01
MA 20$19.02
MA 50$19.23
MA 200$16.53
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index88.02

Risk Assessment

Beta0.33
Volatility23.23%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.