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PIII:NASDAQP3 Health Partners Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-24 - not real-time

$2.64

Latest Price

9/10Risk

Risk Level: High

Executive Summary

P3 Health Partners is trading at $2.64, just below its 20‑day ($2.67) and 50‑day ($2.60) simple moving averages, while the 200‑day SMA sits at $5.42, indicating a long‑term downtrend. The RSI of 48.9 suggests the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, and the MACD histogram (+0.011) with a bullish signal line hints at a modest short‑term upside, but the overall trend is classified as neutral. Volatility is extreme at 93% over the past 30 days, yet beta is very low (~0.15), reflecting limited correlation with the broader market. Trading volume has been shrinking, with today’s volume at 2,049 versus a 10‑day average of 22,250, underscoring thin liquidity and a market‑cap of only $8.7 M. Fundamentally, the company is in distress: gross margin is –4.1%, operating margin –40%, and net profit margin –10%, with a trailing EPS of –$45.26 and a negative book value of $‑47.24 per share. Debt ($287 M) far exceeds cash ($25 M), and the latest guidance was weak enough to trigger a 6% price drop despite a revenue beat, while at‑risk membership fell 9% YoY. The Fear & Greed Index reads “Extreme Greed,” but the underlying financial health and liquidity concerns make the rally appear speculative. Together, these technical and fundamental signals paint a picture of a highly volatile, low‑liquidity stock with deteriorating earnings and cash flow prospects.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Weak profitability and negative EPS
  • Decreasing trading volume and high volatility
  • Recent guidance miss and 6% price decline

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Potential upside from bullish MACD signal
  • Very low price‑to‑sales ratio suggesting floor price
  • Uncertainty around cash‑flow stabilization

Long Term

> 3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 4/10

Key Factors

  • Sustained negative margins and high debt load
  • Continued membership erosion
  • Thin market cap and liquidity constraints

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth3.80%
Profit Margin-10.14%
P/E Ratio-12.6
ROE-6952.57%
ROA-23.46%
P/B Ratio-0.1
Op. Cash Flow$-91238000
Free Cash Flow$16.3M
Industry P/E25.4

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI48.9
Support$2.28
Resistance$3.13
MA 20$2.67
MA 50$2.60
MA 200$5.42
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index88.02

Valuation

Target Price$3.50
Upside/Downside32.58%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue

Risk Assessment

Beta0.15
Volatility93.11%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskHigh

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.