PFE:NYSEPfizer, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-21 - not real-time
$25.21
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Pfizer trades at $25.21, roughly 15.8% below its DCF‑derived fair value of $26.96, indicating a clear undervaluation. The stock’s forward PE of 8.9 and a trailing PE of 19.2 are well under the industry average of 24.1, reinforcing the value case. Technicals are modestly supportive – RSI sits at 38.7 (near‑oversold), the MACD line has turned bullish, and price is holding above the $24.94 support level while approaching the $26.54 resistance.
Fundamentally, Pfizer delivers a 6.8% dividend yield but a payout ratio of 131% raises sustainability concerns despite strong free cash flow. Debt remains high (DE ratio 71.6) and net‑debt exceeds 3× EBITDA, adding balance‑sheet risk. However, recent catalysts – a new partnership with Sinopharm to expand Diflucan in China and positive Phase 2b data for the obesity candidate berobenatide – could fuel revenue growth and diversify earnings.
Fundamentally, Pfizer delivers a 6.8% dividend yield but a payout ratio of 131% raises sustainability concerns despite strong free cash flow. Debt remains high (DE ratio 71.6) and net‑debt exceeds 3× EBITDA, adding balance‑sheet risk. However, recent catalysts – a new partnership with Sinopharm to expand Diflucan in China and positive Phase 2b data for the obesity candidate berobenatide – could fuel revenue growth and diversify earnings.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Current price ~15% below DCF fair value
- Bullish MACD signal and RSI near oversold
- Attractive dividend yield despite payout concerns
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Pipeline progress – China partnership and obesity drug data
- Forward PE of 8.9 suggesting strong upside
- Sustained free cash flow supporting dividend and reinvestment
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- High debt load and >100% payout ratio
- Diversified product portfolio and biosimilar expansion
- Potential volatility from regulatory outcomes and R&D execution
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth5.40%
Profit Margin11.83%
P/E Ratio19.2
ROE8.31%
ROA5.69%
Debt/Equity71.60
P/B Ratio1.6
Op. Cash Flow$12.0B
Free Cash Flow$12.4B
Industry P/E24.1
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI38.7
Support$24.94
Resistance$26.54
MA 20$25.85
MA 50$26.25
MA 200$25.88
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.46
Valuation
Fair Value$26.96
Target Price$29.19
Upside/Downside15.78%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield6.82%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.32
Volatility19.13%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.