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PETR4:BMFBOVESPAPetroleo Brasileiro SA Pfd Analysis

Data as of 2026-07-23 - not real-time

R$42.58

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Petrobras trades well below its intrinsic valuation, offering a compelling entry point for value‑oriented investors. The stock benefits from a very low price‑earnings multiple relative to peers, a robust cash conversion profile and a dividend yield in the high single‑digit range, supporting a strong income case. Technical signals are supportive, with price holding above short‑term and long‑term moving averages, a bullish MACD divergence and rising volume, while the relative strength index indicates modest upward momentum.
The recent board approval of a multi‑billion‑dollar renewable jet‑fuel project adds a strategic growth catalyst, diversifying the energy mix and aligning with global low‑carbon trends. Combined with a sizable upside versus discounted cash‑flow estimates, the risk‑adjusted case for accumulation is solid, though investors should remain mindful of commodity, regulatory and currency dynamics inherent to the Brazilian energy sector.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish MACD histogram with price above key moving averages
  • Increasing trading volume indicating market participation
  • Attractive dividend yield supporting short‑term return

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Significant valuation gap versus discounted cash‑flow target
  • Strategic investment in renewable jet fuel expanding growth runway
  • Strong free cash flow and low payout ratio sustaining dividend

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Low price‑earnings multiple anchored by stable earnings generation
  • Diversification into low‑carbon and gas businesses reducing commodity risk
  • Robust balance sheet with ample cash despite elevated leverage

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth0.40%
Profit Margin21.60%
P/E Ratio5.2
ROE25.60%
ROA8.23%
Debt/Equity83.27
P/B Ratio1.2
Op. Cash FlowR$195.0B
Free Cash FlowR$82.9B
Industry P/E22.0

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI61.9
SupportR$37.40
ResistanceR$41.70
MA 20R$39.25
MA 50R$41.04
MA 200R$38.11
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.71

Valuation

Fair ValueR$55.98
Target PriceR$54.95
Upside/Downside29.06%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield9.36%

Risk Assessment

Beta-0.38
Volatility26.19%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.