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PEO:GPWBank Polska Kasa Opieki S.A. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-14 - not real-time

$26.50

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

The fund’s price of $26.5 sits comfortably above the 20‑day ($26.16), 50‑day ($24.73) and 200‑day ($22.29) moving averages, confirming a bullish trend while the RSI at 60 indicates room for further upside. Volume is on an increasing trajectory and the stock trades near its short‑term resistance of $27.12 with support around $25.19, suggesting a near‑term breakout potential. Despite a bearish MACD histogram, the overall technical picture remains positive, reinforced by a modest beta (~0.77) and a 30‑day volatility of 20.4%, which is typical for energy‑focused assets. Recent corporate news – the election of an independent director and the declaration of a distribution – underscores stable governance and the fund’s commitment to delivering cash to shareholders. On the fundamentals side, a trailing P/E of 13.1 is well below the industry average of 16.4, and the dividend yield of 7.74% is exceptionally high, though the payout ratio exceeds 100%, raising questions about dividend sustainability. With zero debt and a book‑value per share of $24.09, the valuation appears undervalued relative to peers, but the lack of operating cash flow and reliance on portfolio income add a layer of risk. Overall, the fund presents a value‑oriented opportunity with attractive yield, but investors should monitor cash‑flow generation and sector cyclicality.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price above key moving averages
  • High dividend yield but payout >100%
  • MACD bearish divergence near resistance

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued P/E vs industry
  • Increasing volume and bullish trend
  • Strong distribution announcement supporting cash flow expectations

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Sector cyclicality and regulatory exposure
  • Dividend sustainability concerns
  • Solid book value and zero debt

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth3.80%
Profit Margin269.92%
P/E Ratio13.1
ROE8.43%
ROA1.54%
P/B Ratio1.1
Industry P/E16.4

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI60.2
Support$25.19
Resistance$27.12
MA 20$26.16
MA 50$24.73
MA 200$22.29
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88

Valuation

GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield7.74%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.77
Volatility20.42%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.