PEO:GPWBank Polska Kasa Opieki S.A. Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-14 - not real-time
$26.50
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
The fund’s price of $26.5 sits comfortably above the 20‑day ($26.16), 50‑day ($24.73) and 200‑day ($22.29) moving averages, confirming a bullish trend while the RSI at 60 indicates room for further upside. Volume is on an increasing trajectory and the stock trades near its short‑term resistance of $27.12 with support around $25.19, suggesting a near‑term breakout potential. Despite a bearish MACD histogram, the overall technical picture remains positive, reinforced by a modest beta (~0.77) and a 30‑day volatility of 20.4%, which is typical for energy‑focused assets. Recent corporate news – the election of an independent director and the declaration of a distribution – underscores stable governance and the fund’s commitment to delivering cash to shareholders. On the fundamentals side, a trailing P/E of 13.1 is well below the industry average of 16.4, and the dividend yield of 7.74% is exceptionally high, though the payout ratio exceeds 100%, raising questions about dividend sustainability. With zero debt and a book‑value per share of $24.09, the valuation appears undervalued relative to peers, but the lack of operating cash flow and reliance on portfolio income add a layer of risk. Overall, the fund presents a value‑oriented opportunity with attractive yield, but investors should monitor cash‑flow generation and sector cyclicality.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price above key moving averages
- High dividend yield but payout >100%
- MACD bearish divergence near resistance
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Undervalued P/E vs industry
- Increasing volume and bullish trend
- Strong distribution announcement supporting cash flow expectations
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Sector cyclicality and regulatory exposure
- Dividend sustainability concerns
- Solid book value and zero debt
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth3.80%
Profit Margin269.92%
P/E Ratio13.1
ROE8.43%
ROA1.54%
P/B Ratio1.1
Industry P/E16.4
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI60.2
Support$25.19
Resistance$27.12
MA 20$26.16
MA 50$24.73
MA 200$22.29
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88
Valuation
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield7.74%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.77
Volatility20.42%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.