PBA:NYSEPembina Pipeline Corp. Analysis
Data as of 2026-04-23 - not real-time
$43.26
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Pembina Pipeline is trading at $43.26, just below its 20‑day SMA of 43.99 and marginally under the 50‑day SMA of 44.19, indicating a slight short‑term weakness. The RSI of 44.4 sits in neutral territory while the MACD is bearish, and volume has been trending down, suggesting limited upside momentum in the near term.
Fundamentally, the stock appears overvalued with a market price more than double its DCF fair value of $20.58 and a modest PE of 22.2 versus the industry average of 21.96. The dividend yield is attractive at 4.8% but the payout ratio exceeds 100%, raising concerns about sustainability.
Recent material news outlines a strategic growth plan targeting 5‑7% annual fee‑based EBITDA growth through 2030 and a 40% stake acquisition by Apollo‑managed funds, which could bolster cash flow and support the dividend. Balancing the growth narrative against the current valuation and technical weakness, the stock warrants a cautious but optimistic stance for medium‑ to long‑term investors.
Fundamentally, the stock appears overvalued with a market price more than double its DCF fair value of $20.58 and a modest PE of 22.2 versus the industry average of 21.96. The dividend yield is attractive at 4.8% but the payout ratio exceeds 100%, raising concerns about sustainability.
Recent material news outlines a strategic growth plan targeting 5‑7% annual fee‑based EBITDA growth through 2030 and a 40% stake acquisition by Apollo‑managed funds, which could bolster cash flow and support the dividend. Balancing the growth narrative against the current valuation and technical weakness, the stock warrants a cautious but optimistic stance for medium‑ to long‑term investors.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bearish MACD and decreasing volume signal limited short‑term upside
- Price is near support at $41.83 with modest upside to $46.20
- Overvalued relative to DCF fair value
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- 5‑7% annual fee‑based EBITDA growth target through 2030
- Strategic 40% stake acquisition by Apollo funds enhancing capital structure
- Strong cash generation (operating cash flow $3.3B) supporting dividend and reinvestment
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Stable midstream infrastructure with long‑term contracted revenue
- Attractive dividend yield if payout improves with cash flow growth
- Sector fundamentals and low beta suggest defensive characteristics over the horizon
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-10.80%
Profit Margin21.78%
P/E Ratio22.2
ROE9.88%
ROA4.38%
Debt/Equity79.36
P/B Ratio2.3
Op. Cash Flow$3.3B
Free Cash Flow$1.9B
Industry P/E22.0
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI44.4
Support$41.83
Resistance$46.20
MA 20$43.99
MA 50$44.19
MA 200$39.88
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index86.54
Valuation
Fair Value$20.58
Target Price$40.82
Upside/Downside-5.63%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield4.82%
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.02
Volatility15.56%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.