PAYX:NASDAQPaychex, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-09-01 - not real-time
$125.64
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Paychex, Inc. trades at $125.64, with its short-term moving averages stacked above the longer-term ones — a bullish trend structure. The last 30 days have gained 12.2%. With RSI at 61.6 the momentum picture is approaching overbought, alongside a bearish MACD signal. Watch $116.11 as support and $127.98 as the nearer resistance level.
Multiples put this in overvalued territory: 25.7 times earnings against the sector's 35.3. Consensus targets land 9.5% below where the shares trade now. Revenue is growing at 12.5% on a 26.6% profit margin. The 3.74% dividend yield looks stretched against payout coverage.
The composite risk read is 5/10, putting it in moderate territory. With 30-day volatility of 29.0%, a beta of -0.01 and a maximum drawdown of 37.7%, position sizing matters here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 92 on the fear-greed composite.
All three time horizons resolve to hold, carrying 2/10 conviction.
Multiples put this in overvalued territory: 25.7 times earnings against the sector's 35.3. Consensus targets land 9.5% below where the shares trade now. Revenue is growing at 12.5% on a 26.6% profit margin. The 3.74% dividend yield looks stretched against payout coverage.
The composite risk read is 5/10, putting it in moderate territory. With 30-day volatility of 29.0%, a beta of -0.01 and a maximum drawdown of 37.7%, position sizing matters here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 92 on the fear-greed composite.
All three time horizons resolve to hold, carrying 2/10 conviction.
Top Market Events
Paychex Inc. PAYX reported fourth-quarter results that topped Wall Street expectations on Wednesday, but shares...While Paychex Inc’s PAYX fiscal 2026 results were "noisy," the setup for fiscal 2027 appears "cleaner," according to...Microsoft and our third-party vendors use cookies to store and access information such as unique IDs and personal...
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 3/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked above long-term ones
- Trading above the 200-day average of 103.85
- MACD momentum is negative
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 2/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked above long-term ones
- P/E of 25.7 versus sector average of 35.3
- Dividend yield of 3.74% looks stretched against payout coverage
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 2/10
Key Factors
- P/E of 25.7 versus sector average of 35.3
- Dividend yield of 3.74% looks stretched against payout coverage
- Analyst targets imply -9.5% versus the current price
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth12.50%
Profit Margin26.63%
P/E Ratio25.7
Debt/Equity123.97
P/B Ratio12.0
Op. Cash Flow$1.2B
Industry P/E35.3
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI61.6
Support$116.11
Resistance$127.98
MA 20$122.97
MA 50$114.78
MA 200$103.85
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.25
Valuation
Fair Value$39.83
Target Price$113.71
Upside/Downside-9.49%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.74%
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.01
Volatility29.04%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.