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PAYC:NYSEPaycom Software, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-01 - not real-time

$139.67

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Paycom delivered a solid earnings beat, with revenue climbing year‑over‑year and non‑GAAP earnings per share surpassing consensus. Management reaffirmed full‑year revenue guidance that aligns closely with analyst expectations, reinforcing confidence in the growth trajectory. The short‑term moving average sits above the medium‑term average, suggesting a modest bullish bias, while the RSI remains in the upper half of its range, indicating lingering momentum. However, the MACD histogram has turned negative and the signal line is bearish, tempering enthusiasm on the near‑term upside. Volume has been on a downtrend, and the stock is trading near a key resistance level, hinting at a potential short‑term consolidation. Overall, the fundamentals—high margins, strong cash generation, and a modest dividend payout—paint a picture of a resilient business with attractive valuation relative to peers.
The valuation appears attractive, with a price‑to‑earnings multiple well below the industry average and a fair‑value estimate that suggests upside potential. Low beta and limited geographic exposure reduce systemic risk, while the modest dividend yield and low payout ratio support sustainability. Given the blend of growth and value characteristics, the stock is positioned as a compelling pick for investors seeking long‑term exposure to the SaaS‑driven HCM market.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Earnings beat supports price stability
  • Technical indicators show mixed signals
  • Proximity to resistance level limits upside

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Sustained revenue growth and expanding market share
  • Attractive valuation relative to industry peers
  • Strong cash flow and low payout ratio underpin dividend sustainability

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • High gross and operating margins typical of SaaS models
  • Recurring subscription revenue provides visibility
  • Strategic positioning in the growing HCM software space

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth7.80%
Profit Margin22.44%
P/E Ratio16.1
ROE37.15%
ROA7.88%
Debt/Equity94.07
P/B Ratio7.8
Op. Cash Flow$710.2M
Free Cash Flow$294.8M
Industry P/E41.9

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI58.1
Support$125.08
Resistance$145.15
MA 20$135.52
MA 50$128.14
MA 200$161.73
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index94.07

Valuation

Fair Value$103.55
Target Price$151.44
Upside/Downside8.43%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.07%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.39
Volatility44.71%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.