PAX:NASDAQPatria Investments Limited Analysis
Data as of 2026-04-23 - not real-time
$12.80
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Patria Investments is trading below its long‑term moving average with a neutral trend, while the MACD histogram has turned positive, suggesting emerging bullish momentum. The RSI hovers around the neutral zone, and volume has been tapering, indicating a cautious market environment. Volatility remains elevated and beta is modestly above the market, while sentiment indexes signal extreme greed, implying that investors are currently optimistic despite the price weakness.
Fundamentally, the company posted a revenue decline but maintains strong gross and operating margins, and its forward earnings multiple points to considerable upside relative to current pricing. The high dividend yield, coupled with an elevated payout ratio, raises questions about cash‑flow sustainability, especially given the lack of operating cash flow. The recent acquisition of a U.S. private‑equity solutions manager expands Patria’s global private‑market capabilities and underpins the analyst consensus buy rating, with targets indicating a sizable upside from current levels.
Fundamentally, the company posted a revenue decline but maintains strong gross and operating margins, and its forward earnings multiple points to considerable upside relative to current pricing. The high dividend yield, coupled with an elevated payout ratio, raises questions about cash‑flow sustainability, especially given the lack of operating cash flow. The recent acquisition of a U.S. private‑equity solutions manager expands Patria’s global private‑market capabilities and underpins the analyst consensus buy rating, with targets indicating a sizable upside from current levels.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Bullish MACD signal despite neutral price trend
- Acquisition expanding U.S. market exposure
- Attractive dividend yield relative to peers
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Forward earnings multiple suggests strong earnings upside
- Integration of WP Global Partners could boost fee income
- Analyst consensus remains positive with higher target prices
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- High dividend payout may strain cash flow over time
- Revenue contraction raises concerns about growth sustainability
- Exposure to multiple geographies adds macro‑economic risk
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-15.40%
Profit Margin22.43%
P/E Ratio18.8
ROE16.02%
ROA5.99%
Debt/Equity27.37
P/B Ratio3.3
Industry P/E17.5
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI52.9
Support$11.28
Resistance$13.55
MA 20$12.59
MA 50$12.56
MA 200$14.21
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index86.34
Valuation
Target Price$16.64
Upside/Downside30.07%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield4.57%
Risk Assessment
Beta1.08
Volatility32.23%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskHigh
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.