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PATK:NASDAQPatrick Industries, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-23 - not real-time

$100.40

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Patrick Industries is trading below its recent 20‑day moving average and the 20‑day SMA sits under the 50‑day SMA, while the RSI is in the mid‑30s and the MACD histogram remains negative, signalling short‑term bearish momentum. Fundamentally, the company delivers solid top‑line growth of roughly nine percent and a forward PE near sixteen, yet its DCF‑derived fair value sits well under the current market price, suggesting the stock is overvalued on a cash‑flow basis. Balance sheet pressures are evident with a debt‑to‑equity ratio exceeding one hundred percent and cash reserves that barely cover a fraction of total debt, though the dividend payout ratio remains under fifty percent, indicating the dividend could be maintained.
The consensus analyst outlook is positive, with a “buy” recommendation and target prices implying roughly thirty percent upside, while the Fear & Greed Index reflects extreme market optimism. However, the high 30‑day volatility, sizable historical drawdown, and recent fund exit news add caution, especially for short‑term traders.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish technical setup (SMA crossover, RSI below 40, negative MACD)
  • Proximity to identified support level
  • Elevated short‑term volatility

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Revenue growth around nine percent and improving forward earnings
  • Analyst consensus “buy” with target prices indicating ~30% upside
  • Reasonable dividend yield with sustainable payout ratio

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Diversified product mix across RV, marine and housing markets
  • Stable dividend and moderate ROE supporting long‑term cash generation
  • Potential for margin improvement as operating efficiencies are realized

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth9.20%
Profit Margin3.42%
P/E Ratio25.7
ROE11.68%
ROA5.66%
Debt/Equity126.06
P/B Ratio2.8
Op. Cash Flow$329.4M
Free Cash Flow$167.0M

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI36.5
Support$97.06
Resistance$121.39
MA 20$109.21
MA 50$117.52
MA 200$111.22
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index86.07

Valuation

Fair Value$56.30
Target Price$131.50
Upside/Downside30.98%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.85%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.98
Volatility54.32%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.