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PARR:NYSEPar Pacific Holdings, Inc. Common Stock Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-23 - not real-time

$64.34

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Par Pacific is trading well above its short‑ and medium‑term moving averages and comfortably above its long‑term average, confirming a bullish price trend. The RSI sits in a neutral‑to‑slightly‑bullish zone while the MACD histogram has turned negative, hinting at short‑term bearish momentum despite the overall uptrend. Volume has been stable, and the stock recently received an upgrade to "Buy" from a major investment bank, with an increased price target that sits above current levels. Fundamentals show a low price‑to‑earnings multiple relative to the industry, solid return on equity, and positive free cash flow, but revenue growth is flat and the company carries a moderate debt load. The combination of a strong technical backdrop, attractive valuation metrics, and recent analyst optimism supports a positive outlook, though elevated volatility and sector cyclicality warrant caution.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Technical bullish trend with price above key moving averages
  • Recent upgrade to Buy and higher analyst price target
  • Stable volume supporting price momentum

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Attractive valuation relative to peers (low PE, solid ROE)
  • Positive cash flow generation offset by flat revenue growth
  • Energy sector cyclicality and moderate debt levels

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Exposure to refining amid a transitioning energy landscape
  • Absence of dividend reduces total return appeal
  • Potential regulatory and environmental pressures on core operations

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-1.00%
Profit Margin4.95%
P/E Ratio9.0
ROE26.76%
ROA8.44%
Debt/Equity79.20
P/B Ratio2.1
Op. Cash Flow$445.3M
Free Cash Flow$243.4M
Industry P/E22.0

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI57.6
Support$54.00
Resistance$67.39
MA 20$62.83
MA 50$54.24
MA 200$41.03
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index86.52

Valuation

Fair Value$44.99
Target Price$69.86
Upside/Downside8.57%
GradeFair
TypeValue

Risk Assessment

Beta0.00
Volatility68.42%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.