PAAS:TSXPan American Silver Corp. Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-13 - not real-time
CA$87.42
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Pan American Silver delivered a blockbuster Q1 2026, posting $1.15 billion in revenue (up 49.3% YoY) and $457 million net income, with EPS of $1.08 beating the prior‑year $0.42. The results spurred a 12% one‑day price jump, lifting the share price to $87.42, comfortably above the 20‑day ($76.5) and 50‑day ($76.5) SMAs and approaching the 30‑day resistance of $88.04. Technicals are supportive: the RSI sits at 68, the MACD histogram is positive (1.58) and the signal line is bearish, yielding a bullish MACD stance. Volume is increasing, indicating growing participation.
The stock appears undervalued, with a DCF fair value of $114.16 and an upside of roughly 15.6% versus the current price, while the forward PE of 11.2 suggests cheapness relative to earnings growth. Strong operating margins (gross 55.7%, operating 48%, profit 31.6%) and robust free cash flow ($1.30 billion) underpin a sustainable dividend yield of 0.97% and a modest payout ratio of 17%. However, the company faces high 30‑day volatility (≈52%) and a beta above 1, reflecting sensitivity to commodity cycles and geopolitical exposure across Latin America. Overall, the blend of solid fundamentals, attractive valuation, and momentum supports a positive outlook.
The stock appears undervalued, with a DCF fair value of $114.16 and an upside of roughly 15.6% versus the current price, while the forward PE of 11.2 suggests cheapness relative to earnings growth. Strong operating margins (gross 55.7%, operating 48%, profit 31.6%) and robust free cash flow ($1.30 billion) underpin a sustainable dividend yield of 0.97% and a modest payout ratio of 17%. However, the company faces high 30‑day volatility (≈52%) and a beta above 1, reflecting sensitivity to commodity cycles and geopolitical exposure across Latin America. Overall, the blend of solid fundamentals, attractive valuation, and momentum supports a positive outlook.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Bullish MACD and price above key moving averages
- Strong Q1 earnings momentum and 12% price rally
- Increasing volume supporting upward bias
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Potential price consolidation near resistance at $88
- Continued exposure to commodity volatility
- Ongoing capital investment plans that may cap short‑term earnings
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 9/10
Key Factors
- DCF implied upside of ~15% and cheap forward PE
- Sustainable dividend policy with strong free cash flow
- Diversified multi‑country asset base offering long‑term growth
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth49.30%
Profit Margin31.65%
P/E Ratio20.1
ROE20.80%
ROA10.61%
Debt/Equity11.49
P/B Ratio3.8
Op. Cash FlowCA$1.7B
Free Cash FlowCA$1.3B
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI68.4
SupportCA$68.76
ResistanceCA$88.04
MA 20CA$76.50
MA 50CA$76.55
MA 200CA$64.57
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.38
Valuation
Fair ValueCA$114.16
Target PriceCA$101.10
Upside/Downside15.65%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield0.97%
Risk Assessment
Beta1.15
Volatility51.88%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.