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PAAS:TSXPan American Silver Corp. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-10 - not real-time

CA$83.51

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Pan American Silver (PAAS) is trading comfortably above its 20‑day (≈84) and 50‑day (≈80) simple moving averages, with the RSI hovering around the neutral 50 mark, suggesting no immediate overbought pressure. The MACD histogram remains in negative territory, hinting at short‑term momentum weakness, yet the broader trend is classified as bullish and volume has been on an upward trajectory, reinforcing the price’s resilience near the $73 support level and well below the $94 resistance ceiling. Volatility is elevated (≈79% 30‑day) and the beta is modest (Fundamentally, PAAS posted a 44.7% revenue surge year‑over‑year, maintains healthy gross (≈52%) and operating (≈35%) margins, and generates robust free cash flow exceeding $1 bn. The balance sheet is strong with a low debt‑to‑equity ratio and a conservative payout ratio (~18%), supporting dividend sustainability at 0.9%. A DCF‑derived fair value of roughly $93 places the stock about 16% below current levels, while recent La Colorada exploration successes and record 2025 earnings add a compelling growth catalyst. The combination of attractive valuation, solid cash generation, and a modest dividend makes PAAS a noteworthy candidate for investors seeking exposure to silver and diversified base‑metal assets.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Price holding above short‑term SMAs with strong support
  • Increasing trading volume indicating buyer interest
  • Technical momentum still favorable despite bearish MACD histogram

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued DCF fair value providing upside potential
  • Robust cash flow and low payout ratio supporting dividend growth
  • La Colorada exploration results expanding future production

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Sustained earnings growth and strong balance sheet
  • Exposure to multiple commodities and geographic diversification
  • Geopolitical and regulatory uncertainties in Latin America

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth44.70%
Profit Margin27.02%
P/E Ratio24.0
ROE16.73%
ROA8.48%
Debt/Equity12.47
P/B Ratio3.7
Op. Cash FlowCA$1.3B
Free Cash FlowCA$1.0B

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI50.7
SupportCA$73.27
ResistanceCA$94.05
MA 20CA$84.26
MA 50CA$80.47
MA 200CA$56.40
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index75.89

Valuation

Fair ValueCA$92.95
Target PriceCA$96.85
Upside/Downside15.98%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield0.90%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.69
Volatility79.32%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.