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ORI:NYSEOld Republic International Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-07-08 - not real-time

$41.85

Latest Price

4/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Old Republic International trades around $41.85, delivering a **trailing P/E of 10.2** versus an industry average of 17.7, which positions the stock as markedly *undervalued*. Revenue grew 13.5% YoY to $9.4 bn, and margins remain solid (gross 63%, operating 18%, profit 11%), supporting a **ROE of 17%** and a **dividend yield of 3%** with a modest 29% payout ratio, indicating dividend sustainability. Technicals show the price above the 20‑day (39.74) and 50‑day (39.27) SMAs, a bullish MACD histogram (+0.28) and a **RSI of 66**, suggesting momentum but approaching overbought levels; the stock sits near the $42.35 resistance and above the $37.54 support. Volatility is moderate at ~22% over 30 days, beta is effectively neutral (‑0.05), and the market sentiment index reads “Extreme Greed,” reflecting strong investor appetite. While Q1 non‑GAAP EPS missed consensus, the underlying cash generation ($2.1 bn free cash flow) and a **DCF fair value of $202** imply upside potential of roughly 35%. Overall, ORI combines defensive insurance exposure with attractive valuation and dividend characteristics, making it a compelling *value‑oriented* play.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish MACD with positive histogram
  • RSI approaching overbought territory
  • Price near resistance at $42.35

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued relative to peers (P/E 10.2 vs 17.7)
  • Strong dividend yield and low payout ratio
  • Robust revenue growth and cash flow generation

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • DCF indicates substantial upside (~35%)
  • Low beta and defensive insurance profile
  • Sustainable dividend supported by solid free cash flow

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth13.50%
Profit Margin10.83%
P/E Ratio10.2
ROE17.28%
ROA2.95%
Debt/Equity26.84
P/B Ratio1.7
Op. Cash Flow$1.2B
Free Cash Flow$2.1B
Industry P/E17.7

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI66.8
Support$37.54
Resistance$42.35
MA 20$39.74
MA 50$39.27
MA 200$41.40
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index88.89

Valuation

Fair Value$202.70
Target Price$42.00
Upside/Downside0.36%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield3.01%

Risk Assessment

Beta-0.05
Volatility21.75%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.