ORI:ASXOrica Limited Analysis

The moving-average structure behind Orica Limited is neutral at AUD 22.20, with no clear ordering between short and long averages. Over a rolling month the price has lost 7.8%. With RSI at 32.4 the momentum picture is approaching oversold, alongside a bearish MACD signal. The recent range runs from support at AUD 21.67 up to resistance at AUD 23.99.
On valuation the read is fair — an earnings multiple of 43.5, absent a reliable peer benchmark. Consensus targets land 16.5% above where the shares trade now. The 2.73% dividend yield looks stretched against payout coverage.
Risk comes out at 4 of a possible 10, a moderate reading. With 30-day volatility of 17.7%, a beta of 0.35 and a maximum drawdown of 28.9%, position sizing matters here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 96 on the fear-greed composite.
Near-term and long-term part ways here — sell short-term against hold longer out, with 4/10 conviction on the long call.