ORCL:NYSEOracle Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-13 - not real-time
$184.13
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Oracle's stock is trading below its discounted cash flow estimate and below peers on price‑to‑earnings, suggesting a valuation edge. The short‑term moving average sits just under the long‑term average while the RSI indicates a neutral momentum environment, and the MACD has turned bearish, aligning with the recent sharp price decline despite a earnings beat. Volatility is elevated and beta is high, reflecting sensitivity to broader market swings and sector‑specific AI spending concerns highlighted in the news. However, the company posted robust revenue growth, strong operating margins and a healthy dividend payout supported by ample cash, which underpins a more favorable medium‑ to long‑term outlook.
The balance sheet shows substantial debt relative to equity, and free cash flow is negative, flagging cash‑flow pressures as the firm invests heavily in AI and cloud infrastructure. Nonetheless, the dividend yield remains modest with a comfortable payout ratio, and the earnings guidance points to accelerating earnings per share. Together, these factors paint a picture of a stock that is currently undervalued, facing short‑term headwinds but possessing solid fundamentals for patient investors.
The balance sheet shows substantial debt relative to equity, and free cash flow is negative, flagging cash‑flow pressures as the firm invests heavily in AI and cloud infrastructure. Nonetheless, the dividend yield remains modest with a comfortable payout ratio, and the earnings guidance points to accelerating earnings per share. Together, these factors paint a picture of a stock that is currently undervalued, facing short‑term headwinds but possessing solid fundamentals for patient investors.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bearish MACD and neutral RSI signal limited upside momentum
- Recent earnings beat was offset by a sharp price drop
- Elevated volatility and high beta increase short‑term risk
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Revenue growth outpacing the industry and strong operating margins
- Current price below DCF fair value and below peer PE multiples
- Sustainable dividend with a low payout ratio supports total return
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Strategic positioning in cloud and AI markets provides tailwinds
- Undervalued relative to fundamentals and attractive dividend yield
- Long‑term cash generation potential despite short‑term free cash flow deficit
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth20.60%
Profit Margin25.37%
P/E Ratio31.5
ROE53.38%
ROA6.52%
Debt/Equity362.76
P/B Ratio15.8
Op. Cash Flow$32.0B
Free Cash Flow$-20337874944
Industry P/E36.8
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI42.1
Support$175.28
Resistance$250.25
MA 20$205.24
MA 50$184.99
MA 200$205.84
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.86
Valuation
Fair Value$195.77
Target Price$255.95
Upside/Downside39.00%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.09%
Risk Assessment
Beta1.78
Volatility73.78%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.