ONTO:NYSEOnto Innovation Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-06 - not real-time
$253.24
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Onto Innovation is trading below its 20‑day and 50‑day moving averages but comfortably above its 200‑day average, indicating a short‑term pull‑back within a longer‑term uptrend. The RSI sits in the mid‑40s and the MACD histogram is negative, suggesting modest downside momentum while volume has been tapering.
Fundamentally the company posted $1.03 B of revenue with ~10% growth, solid gross and operating margins, zero debt and a strong cash position. Forward earnings estimates imply a forward P/E near 26 versus a trailing P/E of 118, and analysts project a ~39% upside to a median target of $350, reflecting confidence in its strategic partnership with Rigaku and its role in AI‑driven chip production, despite the current market price appearing significantly above the DCF‑derived fair value.
Fundamentally the company posted $1.03 B of revenue with ~10% growth, solid gross and operating margins, zero debt and a strong cash position. Forward earnings estimates imply a forward P/E near 26 versus a trailing P/E of 118, and analysts project a ~39% upside to a median target of $350, reflecting confidence in its strategic partnership with Rigaku and its role in AI‑driven chip production, despite the current market price appearing significantly above the DCF‑derived fair value.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price below short‑term moving averages indicating a potential pull‑back
- Negative MACD histogram and decreasing volume suggest caution
- Support level near $238 provides a floor for downside
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Revenue growth of ~10% and expanding margins
- Strategic partnership with Rigaku enhancing market position
- Forward P/E around 26 points to earnings acceleration
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Zero debt and sizable cash cushion support resilience
- Strong positioning in AI‑enabled semiconductor manufacturing
- Analyst consensus of strong‑buy with a median price target near $350
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth9.50%
Profit Margin10.32%
P/E Ratio117.8
ROE5.25%
ROA5.37%
P/B Ratio6.0
Op. Cash Flow$262.7M
Free Cash Flow$197.2M
Industry P/E32.6
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI43.3
Support$238.12
Resistance$290.33
MA 20$268.27
MA 50$264.41
MA 200$186.56
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index83.02
Valuation
Fair Value$91.38
Target Price$351.88
Upside/Downside38.95%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Risk Assessment
Beta2.65
Volatility61.75%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.