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ONEW:NASDAQOneWater Marine Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-31 - not real-time

$11.01

Latest Price

8/10Risk

Risk Level: High

Executive Summary

ONEW is trading at $11.01, comfortably above its 20‑day (≈$10.90) and 50‑day (≈$10.30) moving averages but still below the 200‑day level (≈$12.80), suggesting short‑term momentum with long‑term caution. The RSI sits near the midpoint at 53 and the MACD histogram is positive, reinforcing a modest bullish tilt. Volume is trending down and beta is high (≈1.94), indicating pronounced price swings and liquidity concerns. Fundamentally, the company bears a heavy debt load (debt‑to‑equity >350%) and posted a negative profit margin (-6.7%), yet forward earnings are projected positive and the DCF model values the stock around $26.80, implying roughly 22% upside from current levels. Recent insider buying by the executive chairman and a reported improvement in margins and reduction in debt provide a catalyst for a near‑term bounce, while the broader “K‑shaped yacht economy” narrative underscores the sector’s sensitivity to discretionary spending. Overall, the stock appears undervalued on a valuation basis but remains exposed to high volatility, leverage, and cyclical demand risks.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Insider purchase signals confidence
  • Bullish MACD and price above short‑term averages
  • Current price well below DCF fair value

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Improving operating margins and debt reduction
  • Continued exposure to cyclical marine demand
  • High leverage still constraining earnings stability

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Elevated volatility and beta indicating price swings
  • Negative historical profitability and ROE
  • Potential upside if debt is managed and earnings turn sustainable

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-8.50%
Profit Margin-6.69%
P/E Ratio10.8
ROE-37.74%
ROA2.70%
Debt/Equity353.25
P/B Ratio0.7
Op. Cash Flow$76.9M
Free Cash Flow$100.4M

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI53.1
Support$9.41
Resistance$12.50
MA 20$10.90
MA 50$10.30
MA 200$12.80
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index94.07

Valuation

Fair Value$26.81
Target Price$13.50
Upside/Downside22.62%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend

Risk Assessment

Beta1.94
Volatility70.00%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.