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OMDA:NASDAQOmada Health, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-12 - not real-time

$17.42

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Omada Health posted a remarkable 42% year‑over‑year revenue growth in Q1 2026, helped by a guidance raise and an EPS beat of roughly 38%, which has sparked strong investor enthusiasm as reflected by the Extreme Greed sentiment (fear‑greed index 87.3). The stock trades at $17.42, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA ($17.28) and 50‑day SMA ($15.39), yet it sits near the calculated support level of $15.97 and below the resistance at $18.71, indicating limited upside in the near term. Technical momentum is mixed: RSI is neutral at 54.8, while the MACD histogram is negative and the signal line is deemed bearish, suggesting a potential short‑term pullback. Volatility is high (≈59% 30‑day) and beta exceeds 1.2, underscoring a price that swings more than the market, though the company carries no debt and holds over $211 M in cash. Fundamental valuation shows the DCF fair value at $13.65, implying the market price is currently overvalued, while the forward PE of 36.5× sits well above the industry average of 24.8×. Despite a negative operating margin and modest profitability, the strong cash flow generation and expanding virtual‑care franchise provide a solid growth narrative.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price near technical support with bearish MACD
  • High short‑term volatility and beta
  • Recent EPS beat but still overvalued relative to DCF

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Sustained 42% revenue growth and raised guidance
  • Strong cash position and positive free cash flow
  • Expanding virtual‑care programs in a growing health‑tech market

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Current market price exceeds intrinsic fair value
  • Operating and profit margins remain negative
  • Regulatory environment and competitive pressures in digital health

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth42.00%
Profit Margin-2.22%
P/E Ratio36.5
ROE-4.30%
ROA-2.35%
P/B Ratio4.4
Op. Cash Flow$22.5M
Free Cash Flow$16.8M
Industry P/E24.8

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI54.8
Support$15.97
Resistance$18.71
MA 20$17.28
MA 50$15.39
MA 200$17.38
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index87.3

Valuation

Fair Value$13.65
Target Price$22.92
Upside/Downside31.59%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth

Risk Assessment

Beta1.24
Volatility58.86%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.