OMDA:NASDAQOmada Health, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-12 - not real-time
$17.42
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Omada Health posted a remarkable 42% year‑over‑year revenue growth in Q1 2026, helped by a guidance raise and an EPS beat of roughly 38%, which has sparked strong investor enthusiasm as reflected by the Extreme Greed sentiment (fear‑greed index 87.3). The stock trades at $17.42, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA ($17.28) and 50‑day SMA ($15.39), yet it sits near the calculated support level of $15.97 and below the resistance at $18.71, indicating limited upside in the near term. Technical momentum is mixed: RSI is neutral at 54.8, while the MACD histogram is negative and the signal line is deemed bearish, suggesting a potential short‑term pullback. Volatility is high (≈59% 30‑day) and beta exceeds 1.2, underscoring a price that swings more than the market, though the company carries no debt and holds over $211 M in cash. Fundamental valuation shows the DCF fair value at $13.65, implying the market price is currently overvalued, while the forward PE of 36.5× sits well above the industry average of 24.8×. Despite a negative operating margin and modest profitability, the strong cash flow generation and expanding virtual‑care franchise provide a solid growth narrative.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price near technical support with bearish MACD
- High short‑term volatility and beta
- Recent EPS beat but still overvalued relative to DCF
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Sustained 42% revenue growth and raised guidance
- Strong cash position and positive free cash flow
- Expanding virtual‑care programs in a growing health‑tech market
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Current market price exceeds intrinsic fair value
- Operating and profit margins remain negative
- Regulatory environment and competitive pressures in digital health
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth42.00%
Profit Margin-2.22%
P/E Ratio36.5
ROE-4.30%
ROA-2.35%
P/B Ratio4.4
Op. Cash Flow$22.5M
Free Cash Flow$16.8M
Industry P/E24.8
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI54.8
Support$15.97
Resistance$18.71
MA 20$17.28
MA 50$15.39
MA 200$17.38
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index87.3
Valuation
Fair Value$13.65
Target Price$22.92
Upside/Downside31.59%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Risk Assessment
Beta1.24
Volatility58.86%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.