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OMAB:NASDAQGrupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte S.A.B. de C.V. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-25 - not real-time

$103.21

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte (OMAB) trades at roughly $103, well below its 20‑day SMA of $105.8 and the 50‑day SMA of $110.3, indicating a short‑term price gap. The RSI sits at 38, hinting at modest oversold pressure, while the MACD remains bearish but the histogram is near zero, suggesting the downside momentum may be waning. Fundamentals are strong: a 6.9% revenue growth rate, operating margin above 54%, and ROE exceeding 43% underscore high profitability. The company generates robust cash flow, supporting a 5.66% dividend yield, though the payout ratio of 84% is high. A DCF‑derived fair value points to roughly 23% upside, and analyst consensus has recently upgraded the outlook to “Buy.” However, the stock carries medium‑level regulatory and geographic risk tied to Mexican airport concessions, and its 30‑day volatility of 27% adds price swing potential. Liquidity appears adequate with stable volume and a $5 B market cap. Overall, the blend of attractive yield, solid earnings, and upside potential makes OMAB a compelling candidate for investors seeking income and growth in the industrials sector.
Given the technical reset near support at $101.4, the dividend attractiveness, and recent analyst upgrades, a cautiously optimistic stance is warranted across short, medium, and long horizons.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Price below short‑term moving averages creating a potential bounce
  • RSI indicating near‑oversold condition
  • Recent analyst upgrades signaling improved sentiment

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Strong operating margins and high ROE supporting earnings growth
  • Attractive dividend yield with solid cash flow coverage
  • DCF upside of ~23% suggesting price appreciation

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Long‑term concession contracts provide stable revenue base
  • Medium regulatory and geographic risk in Mexico could affect future cash flows
  • Sustained dividend payout may be pressured if debt levels rise

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth6.90%
Profit Margin32.63%
P/E Ratio16.3
ROE43.37%
ROA18.41%
Debt/Equity107.21
P/B Ratio7.6
Op. Cash Flow$7.3B
Free Cash Flow$2.8B
Industry P/E29.7

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI38.4
Support$101.39
Resistance$116.99
MA 20$105.76
MA 50$110.31
MA 200$109.51
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index91.8

Valuation

Fair Value$799.44
Target Price$127.70
Upside/Downside23.73%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield5.66%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.67
Volatility27.19%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.