OKTA:NASDAQOkta, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-13 - not real-time
$79.16
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Okta’s stock trades at $79.16, sitting just above its 20‑day SMA (≈$77.35) but well below the 50‑day and 200‑day averages, indicating short‑term resilience amid a broader bearish trend. The MACD histogram is positive and the signal line is bullish, while the RSI hovers near 49, suggesting neutral momentum with a slight upside bias. Volatility remains elevated at over 60% annualized and beta exceeds 1.1, reflecting heightened market sensitivity.
Fundamentally, Okta posted 11.6% revenue growth, strong gross margins (≈77%), and a solid cash pile of $2.55 B against $0.45 B of debt, though ROE is modest (~3.5%). The DCF‑derived fair value of $116.4 implies roughly 27% upside, despite a trailing P/E of 60× versus the industry average of 34×. Recent earnings beat, record contract values and a strategic AI push have earned a “Buy” consensus and a price target near $110, but the cautious fiscal‑2027 outlook muted the post‑earnings rally.
Fundamentally, Okta posted 11.6% revenue growth, strong gross margins (≈77%), and a solid cash pile of $2.55 B against $0.45 B of debt, though ROE is modest (~3.5%). The DCF‑derived fair value of $116.4 implies roughly 27% upside, despite a trailing P/E of 60× versus the industry average of 34×. Recent earnings beat, record contract values and a strategic AI push have earned a “Buy” consensus and a price target near $110, but the cautious fiscal‑2027 outlook muted the post‑earnings rally.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Technical bias remains bearish despite bullish MACD signal
- Earnings beat offset by cautious forward guidance
- Elevated volatility and beta increase near‑term price swings
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- DCF upside of ~27% and analyst price targets around $100‑$110
- Strong cash position and expanding AI‑driven identity solutions
- Increasing trading volume indicating growing investor interest
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 9/10
Key Factors
- Secular demand for identity and access management in a cloud‑first world
- Strategic AI integration and large‑enterprise contract pipeline
- Robust balance sheet with ample liquidity to fund growth initiatives
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth11.60%
Profit Margin8.05%
P/E Ratio60.4
ROE3.51%
ROA1.00%
Debt/Equity6.44
P/B Ratio2.0
Op. Cash Flow$884.0M
Free Cash Flow$836.1M
Industry P/E33.7
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI48.7
Support$68.77
Resistance$88.05
MA 20$77.35
MA 50$84.25
MA 200$90.07
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.73
Valuation
Fair Value$116.38
Target Price$100.95
Upside/Downside27.52%
GradeUndervalued
TypeGrowth
Risk Assessment
Beta1.14
Volatility63.16%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.