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NXDR:NYSENextdoor Holdings, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-21 - not real-time

$1.56

Latest Price

8/10Risk

Risk Level: High

Executive Summary

Nextdoor Holdings trades around $1.56, comfortably above its calculated support of $1.33 but still shy of the $1.60 resistance zone. The 20‑day SMA ($1.44) sits below price while the 200‑day SMA ($1.86) remains well above, underscoring a longer‑term bearish bias. Momentum indicators are mixed: RSI at 59 suggests the stock is not yet overbought, yet the MACD line is slightly negative with a bullish histogram, hinting at a possible short‑term bounce. Fundamentally, the company posts a 6.5% revenue growth rate and an impressive 84% gross margin, but operating and profit margins are deeply negative, and earnings per share remain in the red.
The discounted cash flow model values the shares near $2.08, implying roughly a 33% upside from current levels, while the analyst consensus projects a median target of $2.15. However, volatility is high at 33% over the past month, beta exceeds 1.3, and volume has been trending downward, all of which amplify downside risk. The recent launch of a self‑serve ad platform in Canada could provide a catalyst for revenue expansion, but the company's cash position ($405 M) is offset by a relatively high debt‑to‑equity ratio, raising concerns about financial flexibility.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Price hovering near short‑term support
  • Bearish longer‑term trend (price < 200‑day SMA)
  • Decreasing trading volume

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • DCF implied upside of ~33% and analyst median target above $2.00
  • Revenue growth and high gross margin
  • New ad monetization initiative in Canada

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Substantial cash cushion despite negative earnings
  • Potential turnaround from operational improvements
  • Undervalued relative to intrinsic fair value

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth6.50%
Profit Margin-21.04%
P/E Ratio-17.3
ROE-12.25%
ROA-8.38%
Debt/Equity7.48
P/B Ratio1.4
Op. Cash Flow$6.5M
Free Cash Flow$24.6M
Industry P/E19.2

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI59.3
Support$1.33
Resistance$1.60
MA 20$1.44
MA 50$1.55
MA 200$1.86
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index86.05

Valuation

Fair Value$2.08
Target Price$2.58
Upside/Downside65.06%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend

Risk Assessment

Beta1.37
Volatility33.29%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskHigh

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.