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NX:NYSEQuanex Building Products Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-21 - not real-time

$20.64

Latest Price

8/10Risk

Risk Level: High

Executive Summary

Quanex Building Products (NX) is trading around $20.64, well above its DCF‑derived fair value of roughly $10, indicating a material overvaluation. Technicals show a bullish MACD histogram (+0.28) and an RSI of 63, yet price sits just below the recent resistance of $21.33 and above the support at $16.92, while volume has been trending down, suggesting limited upside momentum. The stock’s beta of ~1.85 and 30‑day volatility near 48% point to pronounced price swings, and the “Extreme Greed” sentiment index (86) may be inflating demand.
Fundamentally, the company posts negative profit margins (‑13 %) and a -28 % ROE, carries a high debt‑to‑equity ratio of 122 %, and its trailing EPS is negative, though forward EPS is modestly positive (2.3). The dividend yield of 1.53 % is backed by an 86 % payout, raising sustainability concerns given the earnings backdrop. Combined with a neutral trend direction and a sizable max drawdown of ~‑50 %, the risk‑reward profile remains tilted toward caution.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish MACD and RSI indicating near‑term momentum
  • Recent news‑driven 5.3% price jump on geopolitical optimism
  • Proximity to resistance level with decreasing volume

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • High debt load and negative profitability metrics
  • DCF fair value far below current market price
  • Dividend yield potentially unsustainable given earnings

Long Term

> 3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 4/10

Key Factors

  • Structural earnings weakness and negative ROE
  • Elevated volatility and beta implying price instability
  • Valuation gap and sector cyclicality limiting upside

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth2.30%
Profit Margin-13.00%
P/E Ratio9.0
ROE-28.19%
ROA3.91%
Debt/Equity122.22
P/B Ratio1.3
Op. Cash Flow$157.2M
Free Cash Flow$85.7M
Industry P/E31.0

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI63.0
Support$16.92
Resistance$21.33
MA 20$18.80
MA 50$19.31
MA 200$17.31
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index86.11

Valuation

Fair Value$9.97
Target Price$28.75
Upside/Downside39.32%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield1.53%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.85
Volatility47.92%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.