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NWN:NYSENorthwest Natural Holding Company Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-22 - not real-time

$49.82

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Northwest Natural Holding Company trades at $49.82, comfortably below its 20‑day SMA of 51.11 and 50‑day SMA of 52.52, indicating short‑term pressure, while remaining above the 200‑day SMA of 47.62. The RSI of 40.9 suggests the stock is not yet oversold, and a bearish MACD (line below signal) reinforces a cautious near‑term outlook. Valuation metrics are attractive: a trailing PE of 17 versus the industry average of 21.8 and a forward PE of 15.4 imply upside, further supported by an estimated 15.4% upside to the consensus target. The dividend yield of 3.95% with a payout ratio around 67% offers solid income, though free cash flow is negative and the debt‑to‑equity ratio is high at 170%, flagging balance‑sheet pressure. Recent earnings commentary highlighted “strong” Q1 results and reaffirmed guidance, yet some analysts noted earnings missed consensus, creating mixed sentiment. Market sentiment is bullish, reflected by an extreme greed index of 91.46, and volume is trending upward, adding liquidity support.
Overall, NWN appears undervalued relative to peers, with a stable regulated revenue base and an appealing dividend, but the high leverage and modest cash‑flow generation warrant vigilance. The stock’s low beta and utility sector positioning mitigate market‑wide volatility, while regulatory and geographic exposures remain modest. Investors should weigh the attractive yield and valuation against the debt load and short‑term technical weakness when determining entry timing.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Price near technical support at $48.37
  • Bearish MACD and neutral RSI
  • Attractive dividend yield of 3.95%

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued PE relative to industry
  • Reaffirmed earnings guidance and solid Q1 performance
  • Stable regulated cash flows supporting dividend

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Low beta and defensive utility sector exposure
  • Consistent dividend payout with reasonable coverage
  • Long‑term growth potential from gas storage and water segments

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-0.80%
Profit Margin9.56%
P/E Ratio17.1
ROE8.10%
ROA2.81%
Debt/Equity170.12
P/B Ratio1.3
Op. Cash Flow$205.6M
Free Cash Flow$-284913248
Industry P/E21.8

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI41.0
Support$48.37
Resistance$54.54
MA 20$51.11
MA 50$52.52
MA 200$47.62
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.46

Valuation

Target Price$57.50
Upside/Downside15.42%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield3.95%

Risk Assessment

Beta-0.06
Volatility30.22%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.