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NWE:NASDAQNorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-18 - not real-time

$69.24

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

NorthWestern Energy is trading at $69.24, just below its 20‑day SMA of $70.26 and 50‑day SMA of $71.02, indicating a modest short‑term weakness despite a bullish MACD histogram and an RSI of 46 that suggests no immediate overbought/oversold pressure. Volatility remains elevated at 33% over the past 30 days, yet the stock’s beta is exceptionally low (≈0.16), reflecting limited market‑wide price swings. The company posted a 7.4% rise in non‑GAAP EPS and reaffirmed its 2026 earnings guidance, supporting the earnings momentum, but its PE ratio of 25.5 sits well above the industry average of 20.5, hinting at overvaluation. The dividend yield of 3.77% is attractive, but a payout ratio near 97% coupled with negative free cash flow and a debt‑to‑equity of 118% raises sustainability concerns. A modest upside of ~3% is implied by the DCF fair value versus current price, while the support level at $65.49 and resistance at $72.82 frame the near‑term price range.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price trading below short‑term moving averages but near support
  • Bullish MACD signal despite neutral trend
  • High dividend yield offset by sustainability concerns

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Steady revenue growth and reaffirmed earnings guidance
  • Valuation premium relative to peers
  • Regulated utility environment providing earnings stability

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 4/10

Key Factors

  • Attractive dividend yield for income investors
  • Elevated debt load and near‑full payout ratio
  • Potential for rate‑case outcomes and weather‑related cost pressures

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth6.60%
Profit Margin10.21%
P/E Ratio25.5
ROE5.77%
ROA2.43%
Debt/Equity118.35
P/B Ratio1.5
Op. Cash Flow$400.5M
Free Cash Flow$-187359504
Industry P/E20.5

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI46.5
Support$65.49
Resistance$72.82
MA 20$70.26
MA 50$71.02
MA 200$66.01
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index88.5

Valuation

Fair Value$24.34
Target Price$71.42
Upside/Downside3.14%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.77%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.16
Volatility33.16%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.