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NWBI:NASDAQNorthwest Bancshares, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-14 - not real-time

$14.80

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

The stock is trading just below its 52‑week high with the 20‑day SMA comfortably above the 50‑day and 200‑day averages, confirming a short‑term bullish alignment. Momentum indicators reinforce this view: the MACD line sits above its signal, the histogram remains positive, and the RSI is perched near the upper threshold, suggesting the price may be approaching overbought territory. Volume has been tapering, and 30‑day volatility is approaching 20%, while the fear‑and‑greed index signals extreme greed, indicating that market enthusiasm is high but may be vulnerable to a pullback.
Fundamentally, the bank delivered a record net income for the quarter, outpacing revenue expectations with double‑digit growth and strong operating margins. The forward P/E is well below the trailing multiple, the dividend yield exceeds 5% with a payout ratio near 90%, and the company has authorized a buyback, underscoring confidence in cash generation. However, the DCF‑derived fair value trails the current price by a modest margin, and the high dividend payout warrants monitoring of cash flow sustainability.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price near resistance and overbought RSI
  • Decreasing volume amid high volatility
  • Attractive dividend yield providing downside cushion

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Quarterly earnings beat and record net income
  • Forward P/E discount to trailing multiple
  • Buyback authorization and strong dividend yield

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Sustainable dividend with solid cash flow
  • Low beta indicating defensive profile
  • Consistent loan growth and stable earnings outlook

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth15.10%
Profit Margin21.41%
P/E Ratio16.1
ROE7.53%
ROA0.85%
P/B Ratio1.1
Op. Cash Flow$119.7M
Industry P/E16.8

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI68.8
Support$13.32
Resistance$14.80
MA 20$14.08
MA 50$13.77
MA 200$12.74
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.86

Valuation

Fair Value$12.09
Target Price$15.00
Upside/Downside1.39%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield5.41%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.65
Volatility19.97%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.