NVS:NYSENovartis AG analysis
Data as of Aug 2, 2026 - not real-time
- Latest price
- $156.15
- Risk: medium
- 6/10Medium risk
Summary
Novartis is trading above its 20‑day and 50‑day moving averages (price ~156 vs SMA20 ~155 and SMA50 ~153) with a bullish MACD histogram and a neutral RSI around the mid‑50s, indicating short‑term momentum but no over‑extension. The stock’s beta of ~0.33 points to low systematic risk, yet 30‑day volatility sits near 27%, and the Fear & Greed index signals “Extreme Greed,” suggesting heightened market optimism.
Fundamentally, the company delivers strong margins (gross ~75%, operating ~35%) and a robust ROE above 30%, but growth is flat at 115%). While the trailing PE of ~23 is below the industry average of ~29, the discounted cash‑flow model values the shares around $61, implying a substantial market premium. The 3%+ dividend yield and a payout ratio near 72% are attractive, yet the debt load and a modest upside/downside estimate (~‑0.5%) temper enthusiasm.
Fundamentally, the company delivers strong margins (gross ~75%, operating ~35%) and a robust ROE above 30%, but growth is flat at 115%). While the trailing PE of ~23 is below the industry average of ~29, the discounted cash‑flow model values the shares around $61, implying a substantial market premium. The 3%+ dividend yield and a payout ratio near 72% are attractive, yet the debt load and a modest upside/downside estimate (~‑0.5%) temper enthusiasm.
Market outlook
Short term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence6/106 out of 10
Key factors
- Price approaching the ~160 resistance zone
- Elevated short‑term volatility and extreme greed sentiment
- Strong dividend yield providing downside cushion
Medium term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence7/107 out of 10
Key factors
- Upcoming Antares Therapeutics partnership as a pipeline catalyst
- Sustained cash‑flow generation supporting dividend payments
- High leverage requiring monitoring but manageable given cash flow
Long term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence5/105 out of 10
Key factors
- Robust profitability metrics (ROE, margins) underpinning intrinsic value
- Significant valuation gap between market price and DCF estimate
- Dividend yield and payout ratio attractive for income‑focused investors
Key metrics
Financial health
Revenue Growth0.80%
Profit Margin22.50%
P/E Ratio23.6
ROE30.35%
ROA10.25%
Debt/Equity116.85
P/B Ratio7.1
Op. Cash Flow$18.4B
Free Cash Flow$11.9B
Industry P/E29.2
Technical analysis
TrendBullish
RSI53.1
Support$149.33
Resistance$160.34
MA 20$154.72
MA 50$152.56
MA 200$146.27
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index92.88
Valuation
Fair Value$61.30
Target Price$155.37
Upside/Downside-0.50%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.04%
Risk assessment
Beta0.33
Volatility26.77%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.