NVR:NYSENVR, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-09-05 - not real-time
$6,298.85
Latest Price
4/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
At $6,298.85, NVR, Inc. shows a bearish moving-average alignment, with shorter averages beneath longer ones. It has lost 1.8% over the past 30 days. With RSI at 47.2 the momentum picture is neutral, alongside a bearish MACD signal. The recent range runs from support at $6,200.00 up to resistance at $6,526.86.
On valuation the read is fair — an earnings multiple of 16.4, absent a reliable peer benchmark. The average analyst target implies 7.7% above today's level. Revenue is contracting at 10.9% on a 11.8% profit margin.
Risk comes out at 4 of a possible 10, a moderate reading. With 30-day volatility of 22.5%, a beta of 0.54 and a maximum drawdown of 34.9%, position sizing matters here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 95 on the fear-greed composite.
Timeframes disagree: the short-term read is sell while the long-term read is hold, conviction 2 out of 10.
On valuation the read is fair — an earnings multiple of 16.4, absent a reliable peer benchmark. The average analyst target implies 7.7% above today's level. Revenue is contracting at 10.9% on a 11.8% profit margin.
Risk comes out at 4 of a possible 10, a moderate reading. With 30-day volatility of 22.5%, a beta of 0.54 and a maximum drawdown of 34.9%, position sizing matters here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 95 on the fear-greed composite.
Timeframes disagree: the short-term read is sell while the long-term read is hold, conviction 2 out of 10.
Top Market Events
NVR stock continues to reflect strong profitability after the US homebuilder delivered double digitNVR stock reflects the homebuilder's strong profitability, with recent quarterly numbers showing resNVR's asset-light model and buybacks support long-term value, but falling earnings, weaker revenues and a premium...
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked below long-term ones
- Trading below the 200-day average of 6808.26
- MACD momentum is negative
Medium Term
1–3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 4/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked below long-term ones
- Trading below the 200-day average of 6808.26
- Analyst targets imply +7.7% versus the current price
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 2/10
Key Factors
- Analyst targets imply +7.7% versus the current price
- Revenue contracting at -10.9%
- P/E ratio of 16.4
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-10.90%
Profit Margin11.85%
P/E Ratio16.4
ROE31.54%
ROA16.55%
Debt/Equity32.15
P/B Ratio5.0
Op. Cash Flow$1.1B
Free Cash Flow$918.3M
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI47.2
Support$6,200.00
Resistance$6,526.86
MA 20$6,343.78
MA 50$6,416.59
MA 200$6,808.26
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index95.48
Valuation
Fair Value$4,342.18
Target Price$6,782.00
Upside/Downside7.67%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Risk Assessment
Beta0.54
Volatility22.52%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.