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NVO:NYSENovo Nordisk A/S Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-21 - not real-time

$43.19

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Novo Nordisk (NVO) trades at a trailing P/E of 10.1, well below the industry average of 24.1, while delivering a robust 71% ROE and a dividend yield of 4.17%. The stock sits near its technical support at $41, with the current price of $43.19 reflecting a neutral trend (RSI 48.5) and a bearish MACD histogram. Volatility is elevated at ~31% over the past 30 days and beta is 1.42, indicating higher sensitivity to market moves. Recent material news includes FDA approval of oral Wegovy, expanding the obesity franchise, but also a cyber‑extortion incident that raises short‑term regulatory and reputational concerns. Despite a negative free cash flow, operating cash flow remains strong, supporting the dividend payout ratio of 42.6%. The DCF model suggests modest upside (~9% above current levels), reinforcing the view that the stock is fundamentally undervalued.
Overall, the combination of attractive valuation multiples, high profitability, and a growing pipeline positions NVO as a compelling long‑run buy, while short‑term caution is warranted due to technical weakness and cybersecurity risk.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Recent cyber‑extortion and data‑breach concerns
  • Bearish MACD and proximity to technical support
  • Attractive dividend yield providing downside cushion

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • FDA approval of oral Wegovy expanding obesity market
  • Strong operating margins and low relative P/E
  • Undervalued relative to DCF and industry peers

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Sustained high ROE and cash generation capacity
  • Robust pipeline in diabetes, obesity, and rare diseases
  • Demographic trends driving long‑term demand for GLP‑1 therapies

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth24.00%
Profit Margin37.21%
P/E Ratio10.1
ROE71.40%
ROA19.25%
Debt/Equity72.09
P/B Ratio6.2
Op. Cash Flow$118.5B
Free Cash Flow$-12039249920
Industry P/E24.1

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI48.5
Support$41.00
Resistance$46.05
MA 20$43.65
MA 50$42.93
MA 200$48.15
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index91.46

Valuation

Fair Value$621.56
Target Price$47.12
Upside/Downside9.10%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield4.17%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.42
Volatility31.42%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.