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NVDD:NASDAQDirexion Daily NVDA Bear 1X ETF Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-17 - not real-time

$33.16

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

The NVDD ETF is trading at $33.16, just below the short‑term resistance of $34.49 and marginally above the 20‑day SMA of $32.55, suggesting limited upside in the near term. Technical indicators show a neutral RSI at 51 and a bullish MACD histogram (+0.20) despite the overall bearish trend direction, indicating mixed short‑term momentum. Volatility remains elevated at 45% over the past 30 days, and the fund’s beta of –1.83 confirms a strong inverse reaction to NVDA’s price movements. The ETF’s expense ratio of 1.01% and a historical max drawdown of nearly 43% amplify the cost and risk of holding this inverse product. Additionally, the market sentiment gauge sits at an “Extreme Greed” level (91.71), which historically disfavors bear‑side positions. Volume is trending upward but remains well below its 10‑day average, pointing to moderate liquidity constraints. Given these dynamics, the fund appears positioned for further downside pressure if NVDA continues its rally, while the high expense and drawdown risk limit upside potential.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Proximity to resistance with limited upside
  • Elevated volatility and high max drawdown
  • Increasing but still modest trading volume

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Daily reset structure introduces tracking uncertainty
  • High sector concentration in a single stock
  • Expense ratio erodes returns over time

Long Term

> 3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Persistent extreme greed sentiment undermines bear positions
  • Inverse exposure to a high‑growth, volatile underlying
  • Historical drawdown magnitude exceeds typical risk tolerance

Key Metrics & Analysis

Fund Metrics

Expense Ratio1.01%
AUM$22.2M
Inception Date2023-09-12
Avg Daily Volume166,500
Premium/Discount0.00%
Tracking Error0.00%
Dividend Yield4.14%

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI51.1
Support$29.80
Resistance$34.49
MA 20$32.55
MA 50$33.45
MA 200$37.87
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.71

Risk Assessment

Beta-1.83
Volatility45.04%
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.