NTDOY:OTCNintendo Co., Ltd. Analysis
Data as of 2026-08-02 - not real-time
$11.82
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Nintendo’s balance sheet is exceptionally strong, with ample cash, no debt and a healthy dividend payout that appears sustainable. The latest Switch 2 launch has driven near‑doubling of net sales and robust operating margins, positioning the company for continued earnings acceleration. Technical indicators show a mixed picture: the short‑term moving average is marginally below the medium‑term average, indicating a bearish bias, yet the MACD has turned bullish and volume is on the rise, suggesting short‑term upside potential near the identified support zone.
The stock trades at a price far below the discounted cash‑flow estimate, implying a substantial upside, but it is also experiencing elevated 30‑day volatility and a historical drawdown exceeding half of its peak value. Investors should weigh the strong fundamentals and dividend yield against the near‑term technical weakness and heightened price swings.
The stock trades at a price far below the discounted cash‑flow estimate, implying a substantial upside, but it is also experiencing elevated 30‑day volatility and a historical drawdown exceeding half of its peak value. Investors should weigh the strong fundamentals and dividend yield against the near‑term technical weakness and heightened price swings.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price hovering just above key support
- Bullish MACD crossover with rising volume
- High short‑term volatility and bearish moving‑average alignment
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Accelerating revenue growth from Switch 2 cycle
- DCF model indicates a large upside potential
- Forward price‑to‑earnings ratio suggests cheap valuation
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 9/10
Key Factors
- Strong cash generation and zero‑debt balance sheet
- Sustainable dividend yield with solid payout ratio
- Enduring brand equity and expanding software monetization
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth95.10%
Profit Margin18.33%
P/E Ratio21.1
ROE14.93%
ROA6.25%
P/B Ratio2.9
Op. Cash Flow$289.8B
Free Cash Flow$277.4B
Industry P/E15.7
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI61.5
Support$10.46
Resistance$12.36
MA 20$11.07
MA 50$11.09
MA 200$15.04
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.88
Valuation
Fair Value$2,584.44
Target Price$35.00
Upside/Downside196.11%
GradeUndervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield2.88%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.68
Volatility38.11%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.