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NOWL:NASDAQGraniteShares 2x Long NOW Daily ETF Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-20 - not real-time

$5.02

Latest Price

9/10Risk

Risk Level: High

Executive Summary

The fund is trading at $5.02, well below its 20‑day ($4.22), 50‑day ($5.22) and 200‑day ($13.74) simple moving averages, underscoring a pronounced bearish trend. Volatility is extreme, with a 30‑day rate of 182%, and the beta of 1.22 amplifies market swings. A max drawdown of –86.5% and a YTD return of –72.94% highlight the severe downside risk already realized. The expense ratio of 1.5% further erodes returns, especially for a 2x leveraged daily product. Despite an increasing volume trend, the daily price range (high $5.92, low $4.91) remains wide, reflecting investor uncertainty.
The MACD shows a bullish histogram but the line remains negative, and the RSI sits at a neutral 55, offering no clear reversal signal. The Fear & Greed Index reads “Extreme Greed” (89), suggesting speculative excess that may not be justified given the fund’s fundamentals. Leveraged ETFs like NOWL are designed for short‑term tactical exposure, not long‑term holding, and the daily reset mechanism adds tracking risk. Combined, these factors point to a high‑risk profile that warrants caution.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish price action relative to all SMAs
  • Extreme short‑term volatility (182% 30‑day)
  • Significant YTD loss (-73%)

Medium Term

1–3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Continued bearish trend and high beta
  • High expense ratio eroding potential gains
  • Leveraged daily reset increasing tracking error

Long Term

> 3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Single‑stock concentration risk
  • Historical max drawdown of -86.5%
  • Incompatibility of leveraged ETFs with long‑term horizons

Key Metrics & Analysis

Fund Metrics

Expense Ratio1.50%
AUM$106.2M
Inception Date2025-07-14
Avg Daily Volume26,519,750
Premium/Discount0.00%
Tracking Error0.00%

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI55.7
Support$3.49
Resistance$5.92
MA 20$4.22
MA 50$5.22
MA 200$13.74
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.18

Risk Assessment

Beta1.22
Volatility182.47%
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.