NOV:NYSENOV Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-04-20 - not real-time
$19.05
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Technical outlook: NOV trades at $19.05, just below its 20‑day ($19.24) and 50‑day ($19.26) SMAs and above the 200‑day SMA ($15.73), while the MACD histogram is negative and the signal line is bearish, indicating short‑term downside pressure. The RSI sits at 48.8, suggesting a neutral momentum environment, and the 30‑day volatility of 33% points to a relatively choppy price action.
Fundamental backdrop: The stock carries a trailing P/E of 48.8 versus an industry average of 21.3, flagging current overvaluation, yet the forward P/E of 15 and a DCF‑derived fair value of $26.0 imply roughly 8% upside. Revenue is contracting (‑1.3% YoY) with thin profit margins (1.66% net), modest ROE (2.4%), and a high payout ratio (130%), making the dividend unsustainable. Geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East are expected to dent Q1 2026 earnings, adding near‑term headwinds.
Fundamental backdrop: The stock carries a trailing P/E of 48.8 versus an industry average of 21.3, flagging current overvaluation, yet the forward P/E of 15 and a DCF‑derived fair value of $26.0 imply roughly 8% upside. Revenue is contracting (‑1.3% YoY) with thin profit margins (1.66% net), modest ROE (2.4%), and a high payout ratio (130%), making the dividend unsustainable. Geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East are expected to dent Q1 2026 earnings, adding near‑term headwinds.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Geopolitical disruption affecting Q1 earnings
- Bearish MACD and price below short‑term SMAs
- Elevated short‑term volatility
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Forward earnings expansion (forward P/E 15)
- DCF‑based upside of ~8% and analyst target median $20.5
- Stable operating cash flow and positive free cash flow
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Structural demand for oil‑&‑gas equipment
- High leverage and unsustainable dividend payout
- Exposure to energy transition and regulatory environment
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-1.30%
Profit Margin1.66%
P/E Ratio48.8
ROE2.37%
ROA3.74%
Debt/Equity37.01
P/B Ratio1.1
Op. Cash Flow$1.3B
Free Cash Flow$754.1M
Industry P/E21.3
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI48.8
Support$18.35
Resistance$20.18
MA 20$19.24
MA 50$19.26
MA 200$15.73
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index87.43
Valuation
Fair Value$26.01
Target Price$20.55
Upside/Downside7.87%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.65%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.94
Volatility33.40%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskHigh
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.