NOV:NYSENOV Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-19 - not real-time
$21.17
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
NOV shares are trading at $21.17, comfortably above the 20‑day (20.20) and 50‑day (19.51) SMAs and the 200‑day SMA (16.42), with a bullish MACD crossover and an RSI of 62.8, indicating short‑term momentum strength.
However, the company posted a revenue decline of 2.4% to $8.69 B, Q1 earnings missed estimates, and analysts have recently downgraded the stock (RBC to Sector Perform, Barclays to Underweight), while a war‑related disruption in the Middle East adds geopolitical headwinds. The current PE of 84.7 is dramatically above the industry average of 22, though the forward PE of 16.2 and a DCF fair value of $25.30 suggest the stock is modestly undervalued with ~14% upside. Dividend sustainability is questionable given a payout ratio of over 200% and a modest 1.49% yield. Overall, NOV balances bullish technicals with weak earnings, high valuation variance, and elevated risk factors.
However, the company posted a revenue decline of 2.4% to $8.69 B, Q1 earnings missed estimates, and analysts have recently downgraded the stock (RBC to Sector Perform, Barclays to Underweight), while a war‑related disruption in the Middle East adds geopolitical headwinds. The current PE of 84.7 is dramatically above the industry average of 22, though the forward PE of 16.2 and a DCF fair value of $25.30 suggest the stock is modestly undervalued with ~14% upside. Dividend sustainability is questionable given a payout ratio of over 200% and a modest 1.49% yield. Overall, NOV balances bullish technicals with weak earnings, high valuation variance, and elevated risk factors.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Recent earnings miss and analyst downgrades
- Geopolitical disruption affecting Q1 revenue
- Technical bullishness but elevated short‑term volatility
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- DCF fair value indicates ~14% upside
- Forward PE of 16.2 aligns with industry norms
- Improving cash flow generation and stable liquidity
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Diversification into renewable‑energy services
- Long‑term demand for oil‑field equipment despite cyclical swings
- Potential for dividend policy normalization as earnings stabilize
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-2.40%
Profit Margin1.05%
P/E Ratio84.7
ROE1.52%
ROA3.19%
Debt/Equity37.32
P/B Ratio1.2
Op. Cash Flow$1.1B
Free Cash Flow$776.5M
Industry P/E22.0
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI62.8
Support$19.14
Resistance$21.24
MA 20$20.20
MA 50$19.51
MA 200$16.42
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index89.39
Valuation
Fair Value$25.30
Target Price$21.20
Upside/Downside0.14%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.49%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.93
Volatility33.23%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskHigh
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.