NOK:NYSENokia Corporation Sponsored Analysis
Data as of 2026-04-20 - not real-time
$10.49
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Nokia (NOK) is trading at $10.49, just below the computed resistance of $10.56 and comfortably above the 20‑day SMA ($9.10) and 50‑day SMA ($8.29), indicating a short‑term bullish alignment. The MACD line sits above its signal (0.64 vs 0.52) reinforcing momentum, but the RSI is at 74, flagging an overbought condition and suggesting a near‑term pull‑back could be likely. Volatility is elevated at ~48% (30‑day) and beta is near 0.9, underscoring heightened price swings.
Fundamentally, Nokia’s valuation appears stretched: a trailing PE of 80.6 dwarfs the industry average of 36.6, while the DCF‑derived fair value is only $1.70, implying a downside of roughly 17%. Revenue growth is modest (2.4%) and margins are thin, and the dividend payout ratio exceeds 100%, raising sustainability concerns. Nonetheless, recent analyst upgrades (Goldman Sachs, Jefferies) and positioning in AI‑related 5G infrastructure provide a narrative for medium‑term upside, albeit at a premium price.
Fundamentally, Nokia’s valuation appears stretched: a trailing PE of 80.6 dwarfs the industry average of 36.6, while the DCF‑derived fair value is only $1.70, implying a downside of roughly 17%. Revenue growth is modest (2.4%) and margins are thin, and the dividend payout ratio exceeds 100%, raising sustainability concerns. Nonetheless, recent analyst upgrades (Goldman Sachs, Jefferies) and positioning in AI‑related 5G infrastructure provide a narrative for medium‑term upside, albeit at a premium price.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- RSI 74 indicating overbought conditions
- Price near technical resistance at $10.56
- High 30‑day volatility (~48%)
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Bullish SMA crossover (20‑day > 50‑day > 200‑day)
- MACD histogram positive, signaling momentum
- Analyst upgrades highlighting AI and 5G growth
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Strategic exposure to 5G and network services
- Diversified global revenue base
- Valuation gap (PE 80× vs industry 36×) and unsustainable dividend payout
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth2.40%
Profit Margin3.27%
P/E Ratio80.7
ROE3.05%
ROA2.50%
Debt/Equity20.97
P/B Ratio2.4
Op. Cash Flow$2.1B
Free Cash Flow$499.1M
Industry P/E36.6
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI74.3
Support$7.79
Resistance$10.56
MA 20$9.10
MA 50$8.29
MA 200$6.24
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index87.77
Valuation
Fair Value$1.70
Target Price$8.70
Upside/Downside-17.02%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.56%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.92
Volatility47.73%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.