NOG:NYSENorthern Oil and Gas, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-09-01 - not real-time
$26.31
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
At $26.30, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. shows no decisive moving-average alignment, leaving the trend neutral. Over a rolling month the price has gained 20.1%. Momentum indicators put RSI at 65.6 (approaching overbought) with MACD reading bearish. The recent range runs from support at $19.66 up to resistance at $27.35.
The shares look undervalued, trading on 6.0 times earnings below a sector average of 21.8. Consensus targets land 13.2% above where the shares trade now. Revenue is growing at 16.0% on a -24.2% profit margin. The 6.92% dividend yield looks stretched against payout coverage.
The composite risk read is 6/10, putting it in elevated territory. With 30-day volatility of 47.2%, a beta of -0.33 and a maximum drawdown of 43.6%, position sizing matters here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 92 on the fear-greed composite.
All three time horizons resolve to hold, carrying 2/10 conviction.
The shares look undervalued, trading on 6.0 times earnings below a sector average of 21.8. Consensus targets land 13.2% above where the shares trade now. Revenue is growing at 16.0% on a -24.2% profit margin. The 6.92% dividend yield looks stretched against payout coverage.
The composite risk read is 6/10, putting it in elevated territory. With 30-day volatility of 47.2%, a beta of -0.33 and a maximum drawdown of 43.6%, position sizing matters here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 92 on the fear-greed composite.
All three time horizons resolve to hold, carrying 2/10 conviction.
Top Market Events
Northern Oil and Gas NYSE:NOG reported Q2 2026 results that surpassed earnings and revenue estimates, with record...Non-operated oil producer Northern Oil and Gas NYSE:NOG announced in Q2 CY2026, with sales up 16.Despite a 400% surge in free cash flow and record natural gas volumes, NOG faces valuation headwinds as it navigates a...
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 2/10
Key Factors
- Trading above the 200-day average of 23.85
- MACD momentum is negative
- 30-day price change of +20.1%
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 3/10
Key Factors
- P/E of 6.0 versus sector average of 21.8
- Dividend yield of 6.92% looks stretched against payout coverage
- Trading above the 200-day average of 23.85
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 2/10
Key Factors
- P/E of 6.0 versus sector average of 21.8
- Dividend yield of 6.92% looks stretched against payout coverage
- Negative profit margin of -24.2%
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth16.00%
Profit Margin-24.15%
P/E Ratio6.0
ROE-22.05%
ROA4.60%
Debt/Equity136.56
P/B Ratio1.4
Op. Cash Flow$1.4B
Free Cash Flow$-459628992
Industry P/E21.8
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI65.6
Support$19.66
Resistance$27.35
MA 20$24.85
MA 50$21.87
MA 200$23.85
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.34
Valuation
Fair Value$198.45
Target Price$29.78
Upside/Downside13.20%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield6.92%
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.33
Volatility47.24%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.