We use cookies to analyze site traffic and improve your experience.
By accepting, you consent to the use of analytics cookies.

NOAH:NYSENoah Holdings Limited Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-20 - not real-time

$10.21

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Noah Holdings trades around $10.21, sitting below its 20‑day SMA (10.31) and well under the 50‑day (11.19) and 200‑day (11.34) averages, signaling a short‑term bearish price bias. However, the MACD histogram is positive and the RSI at 41.5 suggests room for upside before overbought conditions emerge. The stock boasts a PE of 8.73 versus an industry average of 17.7 and a forward PE of 6.58, indicating significant valuation discount, while the price‑to‑book of 0.49 and price‑to‑sales of 0.32 reinforce its cheapness. Fundamentally, revenue grew 12.5% YoY, operating margins sit at 35%, and the company generated a robust dividend yield of 5.67% with a 52% payout ratio, supported by a strong cash balance and minimal debt. Recent earnings releases highlighted a “robust increase in operating profit,” but a downgrade by JP Morgan from Overweight to Neutral introduces caution. The market sentiment is bullish overall (Fear & Greed index at “Extreme Greed”), yet the stock faces high 30‑day volatility (~45%) and decreasing trading volume, underscoring liquidity concerns.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price below short‑term moving averages indicating limited upside
  • Positive MACD histogram suggests potential rebound
  • High volatility and decreasing volume raise short‑term execution risk

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Significant valuation discount relative to peers
  • Strong earnings growth and high dividend yield
  • Improving profit momentum from recent earnings

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Sustained cash generation and low leverage supporting dividend sustainability
  • Exposure to growing Chinese high‑net‑worth investor base
  • Long‑term upside potential as market re‑prices the undervalued valuation

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth12.50%
Profit Margin21.41%
P/E Ratio8.7
ROE5.57%
ROA4.13%
Debt/Equity0.60
P/B Ratio0.5
Industry P/E17.7

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI41.5
Support$9.75
Resistance$11.68
MA 20$10.31
MA 50$11.19
MA 200$11.34
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index87.73

Valuation

Target Price$13.44
Upside/Downside31.67%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield5.67%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.98
Volatility44.68%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.