NOAH:NYSENoah Holdings Limited Analysis
Data as of 2026-04-20 - not real-time
$10.21
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Noah Holdings trades around $10.21, sitting below its 20‑day SMA (10.31) and well under the 50‑day (11.19) and 200‑day (11.34) averages, signaling a short‑term bearish price bias. However, the MACD histogram is positive and the RSI at 41.5 suggests room for upside before overbought conditions emerge. The stock boasts a PE of 8.73 versus an industry average of 17.7 and a forward PE of 6.58, indicating significant valuation discount, while the price‑to‑book of 0.49 and price‑to‑sales of 0.32 reinforce its cheapness. Fundamentally, revenue grew 12.5% YoY, operating margins sit at 35%, and the company generated a robust dividend yield of 5.67% with a 52% payout ratio, supported by a strong cash balance and minimal debt. Recent earnings releases highlighted a “robust increase in operating profit,” but a downgrade by JP Morgan from Overweight to Neutral introduces caution. The market sentiment is bullish overall (Fear & Greed index at “Extreme Greed”), yet the stock faces high 30‑day volatility (~45%) and decreasing trading volume, underscoring liquidity concerns.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price below short‑term moving averages indicating limited upside
- Positive MACD histogram suggests potential rebound
- High volatility and decreasing volume raise short‑term execution risk
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Significant valuation discount relative to peers
- Strong earnings growth and high dividend yield
- Improving profit momentum from recent earnings
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 9/10
Key Factors
- Sustained cash generation and low leverage supporting dividend sustainability
- Exposure to growing Chinese high‑net‑worth investor base
- Long‑term upside potential as market re‑prices the undervalued valuation
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth12.50%
Profit Margin21.41%
P/E Ratio8.7
ROE5.57%
ROA4.13%
Debt/Equity0.60
P/B Ratio0.5
Industry P/E17.7
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI41.5
Support$9.75
Resistance$11.68
MA 20$10.31
MA 50$11.19
MA 200$11.34
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index87.73
Valuation
Target Price$13.44
Upside/Downside31.67%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield5.67%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.98
Volatility44.68%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.