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NNN:NYSENNN REIT, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-19 - not real-time

$44.33

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

NNN REIT trades at $44.33, just above the calculated support of $42.80 and below the resistance of $45.11, with a bullish trend direction and a low beta of 0.16 suggesting limited price volatility. The stock offers an attractive 5.41% dividend yield backed by a 36‑year dividend‑increase streak, but the payout ratio of 116% exceeds earnings and free cash flow is negative, raising sustainability concerns. Financially, the company shows strong profitability – revenue grew 4.1% YoY, operating margin sits at 60.5% and profit margin at 41.4% – yet leverage is high with a debt‑to‑equity of 110%. Valuation metrics appear favorable: the PE of 21.6 is well below the industry average of 32.1, and the price‑to‑FFO proxy is under 13x, though the DCF fair value of $11.58 suggests the market may be pricing in growth and dividend expectations. Recent news shows the board raised the quarterly dividend to $0.60 and Citi lifted its price target to $46, reflecting confidence in earnings guidance and occupancy improvements. Overall, the stock presents a modest upside of about 3.7% with a strong income profile but carries cash‑flow and leverage risks that warrant careful monitoring.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Price near technical support with bullish trend
  • High dividend yield and recent dividend increase
  • Valuation advantage vs industry PE

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Elevated debt‑to‑equity and negative free cash flow
  • Potential pressure on dividend sustainability
  • Stable occupancy and earnings guidance

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Long‑term dividend growth track record
  • Strong operating margins and revenue growth
  • Low volatility and defensive REIT structure

Key Metrics & Analysis

REIT Metrics

P/FFO12.957383677482792

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI53.6
Support$42.80
Resistance$45.11
MA 20$44.08
MA 50$43.87
MA 200$42.38
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index89.5

Risk Assessment

Beta0.16
Volatility14.60%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.