NMRK:NASDAQNewmark Group, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-04-20 - not real-time
$16.53
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Newmark Group (NMRK) trades around $16.5, well below its DCF fair value of $23.8, offering roughly a 17% upside. The stock sits just under its 20‑day SMA (≈$15.07) and 50‑day SMA (≈$14.97) while the 200‑day SMA remains higher (≈$16.47), signaling a neutral longer‑term trend but short‑term support near $14.1. Technicals are broadly positive – the MACD line sits above its signal, generating a bullish histogram, and the RSI at 66 suggests momentum without immediate overbought pressure. Volume has been tapering, which tempers enthusiasm, yet the recent $525 million refinancing deal and the hiring of a new infrastructure capital markets head underline a strategic push into higher‑margin, recurring‑revenue services. Analysts are upbeat: KBW highlighted market‑share gains and international expansion, and the consensus recommendation is a “buy.” Fundamentally, revenue is growing at ~15% YoY, operating margins are solid at ~12.5%, and free cash flow remains positive, though leverage is high (debt‑to‑equity >120%). The dividend, modest at 0.73% with a 17% payout ratio, appears sustainable given cash flow coverage. Overall, the combination of undervaluation, growth momentum, and strategic initiatives supports a positive outlook, albeit with heightened volatility and leverage concerns.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Bullish MACD and supportive RSI momentum
- Price near immediate support level with upside to resistance
- Decreasing volume adds caution but does not negate technical bias
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Significant upside to DCF fair value and forward PE compression
- Strong revenue growth and expanding international footprint
- Analyst endorsement and recent large‑scale refinancing activity
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Sustainable dividend supported by positive free cash flow
- Recurring‑revenue business model and infrastructure capital markets expansion
- Elevated leverage and sector cyclicality temper long‑run optimism
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth15.30%
Profit Margin3.83%
P/E Ratio24.3
ROE9.45%
ROA2.58%
Debt/Equity120.03
P/B Ratio2.1
Op. Cash Flow$172.0M
Free Cash Flow$312.1M
Industry P/E34.0
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI66.9
Support$14.11
Resistance$16.66
MA 20$15.07
MA 50$14.97
MA 200$16.47
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index86.96
Valuation
Fair Value$23.76
Target Price$19.33
Upside/Downside16.96%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield0.73%
Risk Assessment
Beta1.55
Volatility35.25%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.