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NMRK:NASDAQNewmark Group, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-20 - not real-time

$16.53

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Newmark Group (NMRK) trades around $16.5, well below its DCF fair value of $23.8, offering roughly a 17% upside. The stock sits just under its 20‑day SMA (≈$15.07) and 50‑day SMA (≈$14.97) while the 200‑day SMA remains higher (≈$16.47), signaling a neutral longer‑term trend but short‑term support near $14.1. Technicals are broadly positive – the MACD line sits above its signal, generating a bullish histogram, and the RSI at 66 suggests momentum without immediate overbought pressure. Volume has been tapering, which tempers enthusiasm, yet the recent $525 million refinancing deal and the hiring of a new infrastructure capital markets head underline a strategic push into higher‑margin, recurring‑revenue services. Analysts are upbeat: KBW highlighted market‑share gains and international expansion, and the consensus recommendation is a “buy.” Fundamentally, revenue is growing at ~15% YoY, operating margins are solid at ~12.5%, and free cash flow remains positive, though leverage is high (debt‑to‑equity >120%). The dividend, modest at 0.73% with a 17% payout ratio, appears sustainable given cash flow coverage. Overall, the combination of undervaluation, growth momentum, and strategic initiatives supports a positive outlook, albeit with heightened volatility and leverage concerns.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish MACD and supportive RSI momentum
  • Price near immediate support level with upside to resistance
  • Decreasing volume adds caution but does not negate technical bias

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Significant upside to DCF fair value and forward PE compression
  • Strong revenue growth and expanding international footprint
  • Analyst endorsement and recent large‑scale refinancing activity

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Sustainable dividend supported by positive free cash flow
  • Recurring‑revenue business model and infrastructure capital markets expansion
  • Elevated leverage and sector cyclicality temper long‑run optimism

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth15.30%
Profit Margin3.83%
P/E Ratio24.3
ROE9.45%
ROA2.58%
Debt/Equity120.03
P/B Ratio2.1
Op. Cash Flow$172.0M
Free Cash Flow$312.1M
Industry P/E34.0

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI66.9
Support$14.11
Resistance$16.66
MA 20$15.07
MA 50$14.97
MA 200$16.47
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index86.96

Valuation

Fair Value$23.76
Target Price$19.33
Upside/Downside16.96%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield0.73%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.55
Volatility35.25%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.