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NMR:NYSENomura Holdings Inc Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-18 - not real-time

$9.10

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Technical outlook is bullish: the stock is trading above its short‑ and long‑term moving averages, MACD shows a bullish crossover, and volume is on the rise, all under an environment of extreme market greed. Momentum indicators suggest continued upside, though the RSI points to overbought conditions near the current price.
Fundamental picture is mixed but attractive on valuation: Nomura delivers strong top‑line growth and a low price‑to‑earnings multiple compared with its sector, complemented by a generous dividend yield and modest payout ratio. However, the balance sheet is heavily leveraged, cash flow from operations is negative, and debt levels are substantial, raising questions about long‑term financial resilience despite recent record earnings and higher profit targets.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish technical indicators and strong price momentum
  • High dividend yield offering immediate income
  • Overbought RSI suggesting limited upside in the near term

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Robust revenue growth and low relative P/E
  • Sustainable dividend with low payout ratio
  • Record profit performance and raised profit targets

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Elevated debt load and negative operating cash flow
  • Potential regulatory headwinds in the capital‑markets sector
  • Continued dividend support but reliance on earnings stability

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth27.50%
Profit Margin16.71%
P/E Ratio12.3
ROE10.07%
ROA0.63%
Debt/Equity917.37
P/B Ratio1.1
Op. Cash Flow$-842960011264
Industry P/E17.1

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI70.3
Support$7.89
Resistance$9.31
MA 20$8.43
MA 50$8.26
MA 200$8.02
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index88.5

Valuation

Target Price$9.35
Upside/Downside2.73%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield4.62%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.32
Volatility26.21%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.