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NMR:NYSENomura Holdings Inc Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-20 - not real-time

$8.00

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Nomura Holdings (NMR) trades around $8, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA (≈$7.97) and 50‑day SMA (≈$8.00) while the RSI sits near 48, indicating a neutral momentum stance. Technical signals such as a bullish MACD histogram and a stable volume trend support a modest upside bias, with the price positioned midway between the identified support ($7.71) and resistance ($8.40) levels. Fundamentally, the company posts a robust revenue growth rate of 27.5% and a PE ratio of roughly 10.7, well below the industry average of 16.5, suggesting an undervalued valuation. The dividend yield of 5.14% and a payout ratio under 22% are attractive, though the negative operating cash flow and a staggering debt‑to‑equity ratio above 900 raise sustainability concerns. Recent news highlights a record full‑year net income and strategic moves into the shipping sector, providing a catalyst for earnings momentum. The market’s “Extreme Greed” sentiment (fear‑greed index 89.4) aligns with the modest upside potential of about 17% to the consensus target price of $9.35.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Neutral technical stance with bullish MACD
  • Dividend yield provides income cushion
  • Price near support but no strong breakout

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued valuation relative to peers
  • Record earnings and expansion into shipping
  • Target upside of ~17% to $9.35

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • High debt‑to‑equity and negative cash flow
  • Sustainable dividend at current payout
  • Long‑term growth prospects tempered by balance‑sheet risk

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth27.50%
Profit Margin16.71%
P/E Ratio10.7
ROE10.07%
ROA0.63%
Debt/Equity917.37
P/B Ratio1.0
Op. Cash Flow$-842960011264
Industry P/E16.5

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI48.4
Support$7.71
Resistance$8.40
MA 20$7.97
MA 50$8.00
MA 200$7.90
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index89.41

Valuation

Target Price$9.35
Upside/Downside16.85%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield5.14%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.38
Volatility33.71%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.