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NMR:NYSENomura Holdings Inc Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-20 - not real-time

$8.61

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Nomura Holdings trades at $8.61, sitting just above its 20‑day SMA (≈8.13) but below the 50‑day SMA (≈8.39), indicating a price that is still testing short‑term support while the longer trend remains neutral. The RSI of roughly 60 points to modest upward momentum without being overbought, and a bullish MACD histogram reinforces the potential for a continued climb toward the identified resistance around $8.75. Fundamentally, the stock appears undervalued with a trailing P/E near 11 versus an industry average of 17.7, a price‑to‑book close to 1.1, and a dividend yield of nearly 4.8% supported by a payout ratio just above 50%.
Recent material news adds a mixed flavor: growing short interest raises caution, yet JPMorgan’s upgrade to Overweight and a notable investment by billionaire Ken Fisher signal confidence in upside, echoed by a consensus price target of $9.37 (≈8% upside). The company’s solid revenue growth (~10%), strong gross margin (≈79%), and attractive dividend are tempered by a very high debt‑to‑equity ratio and elevated 30‑day volatility (≈34%), suggesting that while the valuation is appealing, risk management remains essential.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish MACD and RSI indicating near‑term momentum
  • Attractive dividend yield with sustainable payout
  • Analyst upgrade to Overweight and positive price target

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued valuation metrics relative to peers
  • Revenue growth of ~10% and strong profitability margins
  • Potential upside to consensus target price of $9.37

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • High debt‑to‑equity ratio and leverage risk
  • Elevated volatility and beta indicating market sensitivity
  • Sustained dividend income offsetting valuation concerns

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth9.90%
Profit Margin17.63%
P/E Ratio11.6
ROE9.93%
ROA0.61%
Debt/Equity895.37
P/B Ratio1.1
Industry P/E17.7

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI60.7
Support$7.48
Resistance$8.75
MA 20$8.13
MA 50$8.39
MA 200$7.73
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index86.91

Valuation

Target Price$9.37
Upside/Downside8.80%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield4.78%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.30
Volatility33.61%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.