NMR:NYSENomura Holdings Inc Analysis
Data as of 2026-04-20 - not real-time
$8.61
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Nomura Holdings trades at $8.61, sitting just above its 20‑day SMA (≈8.13) but below the 50‑day SMA (≈8.39), indicating a price that is still testing short‑term support while the longer trend remains neutral. The RSI of roughly 60 points to modest upward momentum without being overbought, and a bullish MACD histogram reinforces the potential for a continued climb toward the identified resistance around $8.75. Fundamentally, the stock appears undervalued with a trailing P/E near 11 versus an industry average of 17.7, a price‑to‑book close to 1.1, and a dividend yield of nearly 4.8% supported by a payout ratio just above 50%.
Recent material news adds a mixed flavor: growing short interest raises caution, yet JPMorgan’s upgrade to Overweight and a notable investment by billionaire Ken Fisher signal confidence in upside, echoed by a consensus price target of $9.37 (≈8% upside). The company’s solid revenue growth (~10%), strong gross margin (≈79%), and attractive dividend are tempered by a very high debt‑to‑equity ratio and elevated 30‑day volatility (≈34%), suggesting that while the valuation is appealing, risk management remains essential.
Recent material news adds a mixed flavor: growing short interest raises caution, yet JPMorgan’s upgrade to Overweight and a notable investment by billionaire Ken Fisher signal confidence in upside, echoed by a consensus price target of $9.37 (≈8% upside). The company’s solid revenue growth (~10%), strong gross margin (≈79%), and attractive dividend are tempered by a very high debt‑to‑equity ratio and elevated 30‑day volatility (≈34%), suggesting that while the valuation is appealing, risk management remains essential.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Bullish MACD and RSI indicating near‑term momentum
- Attractive dividend yield with sustainable payout
- Analyst upgrade to Overweight and positive price target
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Undervalued valuation metrics relative to peers
- Revenue growth of ~10% and strong profitability margins
- Potential upside to consensus target price of $9.37
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- High debt‑to‑equity ratio and leverage risk
- Elevated volatility and beta indicating market sensitivity
- Sustained dividend income offsetting valuation concerns
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth9.90%
Profit Margin17.63%
P/E Ratio11.6
ROE9.93%
ROA0.61%
Debt/Equity895.37
P/B Ratio1.1
Industry P/E17.7
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI60.7
Support$7.48
Resistance$8.75
MA 20$8.13
MA 50$8.39
MA 200$7.73
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index86.91
Valuation
Target Price$9.37
Upside/Downside8.80%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield4.78%
Risk Assessment
Beta1.30
Volatility33.61%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.