NMFC:NASDAQNew Mountain Finance Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-19 - not real-time
$7.95
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
New Mountain Finance Corp. (NMFC) is trading at $7.95, barely above its identified support level of $7.95 and below the 20‑day SMA of $8.27, indicating limited upside in the immediate term. The MACD shows a bearish divergence (MACD line -0.024 vs signal 0.036) and the RSI sits at 40.7, suggesting the stock is neither overbought nor oversold but vulnerable to further downside. Recent material news disclosed a Q1 loss of $50.9 million, reinforcing the negative earnings backdrop reflected in a trailing EPS of -$0.57. Despite these pressures, NMFC offers an eye‑catching dividend yield of 15.2% with a modest payout ratio of 8%, which is driving the current price compression. Valuation metrics such as a forward P/E of 7.55 versus an industry average of 16.69, a price‑to‑book of 0.69 and a price‑to‑sales of 2.42 point to the stock being undervalued on a relative basis. However, the balance sheet is heavily leveraged, evidenced by a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 126.5 and total debt of $1.33 billion, raising concerns about the long‑term sustainability of the dividend. The fund’s beta of 0.55 and 30‑day volatility of 24% suggest moderate market sensitivity but higher price swings. Analyst consensus remains neutral with a “hold” recommendation and a median target price of $8.38, implying modest upside of roughly 7% from current levels. In summary, NMFC presents a high‑yield, undervalued opportunity that is tempered by recent losses, significant leverage, and uncertain dividend durability.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Q1 loss of $50.9 million
- Price at support and below short‑term moving averages
- Bearish MACD histogram
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Forward EPS upside and attractive forward P/E of 7.55
- Undervalued valuation multiples (P/B 0.69, P/S 2.42)
- High dividend yield providing income cushion
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Elevated debt‑to‑equity ratio and total debt burden
- Uncertainty around dividend sustainability
- Sector credit risk inherent to business‑development companies
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-19.70%
Profit Margin-18.65%
P/E Ratio7.6
ROE-4.78%
ROA5.61%
Debt/Equity126.53
P/B Ratio0.7
Op. Cash Flow$676.5M
Free Cash Flow$94.3M
Industry P/E16.7
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI40.7
Support$7.95
Resistance$8.69
MA 20$8.27
MA 50$8.08
MA 200$9.07
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index89.2
Valuation
Target Price$8.54
Upside/Downside7.44%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield15.20%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.55
Volatility24.01%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.