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NMFC:NASDAQNew Mountain Finance Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-19 - not real-time

$7.95

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

New Mountain Finance Corp. (NMFC) is trading at $7.95, barely above its identified support level of $7.95 and below the 20‑day SMA of $8.27, indicating limited upside in the immediate term. The MACD shows a bearish divergence (MACD line -0.024 vs signal 0.036) and the RSI sits at 40.7, suggesting the stock is neither overbought nor oversold but vulnerable to further downside. Recent material news disclosed a Q1 loss of $50.9 million, reinforcing the negative earnings backdrop reflected in a trailing EPS of -$0.57. Despite these pressures, NMFC offers an eye‑catching dividend yield of 15.2% with a modest payout ratio of 8%, which is driving the current price compression. Valuation metrics such as a forward P/E of 7.55 versus an industry average of 16.69, a price‑to‑book of 0.69 and a price‑to‑sales of 2.42 point to the stock being undervalued on a relative basis. However, the balance sheet is heavily leveraged, evidenced by a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 126.5 and total debt of $1.33 billion, raising concerns about the long‑term sustainability of the dividend. The fund’s beta of 0.55 and 30‑day volatility of 24% suggest moderate market sensitivity but higher price swings. Analyst consensus remains neutral with a “hold” recommendation and a median target price of $8.38, implying modest upside of roughly 7% from current levels. In summary, NMFC presents a high‑yield, undervalued opportunity that is tempered by recent losses, significant leverage, and uncertain dividend durability.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Q1 loss of $50.9 million
  • Price at support and below short‑term moving averages
  • Bearish MACD histogram

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Forward EPS upside and attractive forward P/E of 7.55
  • Undervalued valuation multiples (P/B 0.69, P/S 2.42)
  • High dividend yield providing income cushion

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Elevated debt‑to‑equity ratio and total debt burden
  • Uncertainty around dividend sustainability
  • Sector credit risk inherent to business‑development companies

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-19.70%
Profit Margin-18.65%
P/E Ratio7.6
ROE-4.78%
ROA5.61%
Debt/Equity126.53
P/B Ratio0.7
Op. Cash Flow$676.5M
Free Cash Flow$94.3M
Industry P/E16.7

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI40.7
Support$7.95
Resistance$8.69
MA 20$8.27
MA 50$8.08
MA 200$9.07
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index89.2

Valuation

Target Price$8.54
Upside/Downside7.44%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield15.20%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.55
Volatility24.01%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.