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NMFC:NASDAQNew Mountain Finance Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-13 - not real-time

$7.95

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

New Mountain Finance Corp (NMFC) is trading at $7.95, below its 20‑day ($7.97), 50‑day ($8.13) and 200‑day ($8.86) simple moving averages, signaling a bearish technical stance. The MACD histogram is marginally negative and the RSI sits at 47, indicating no clear momentum reversal yet. On the valuation side, the forward price‑to‑earnings of 7.55 is well under the industry average PE of 16.8, while the price‑to‑book of 0.73 suggests the stock is priced below its net asset value. The dividend yield of 15.24% is exceptionally high, supported by a modest 8% payout ratio and robust operating cash flow of $676 M, though net earnings remain negative. A key concern is the capital structure: total debt of $1.33 B dwarfs cash of $51 M, giving a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 126, which amplifies financial risk. Volatility over the past month is elevated at ~22% and the beta of 0.52 points to lower market‑wide sensitivity, but the high leverage offsets that comfort. Analyst price targets average $8.54, implying roughly 7% upside, yet the stock’s recent earnings surprise was flat and revenue fell 19.7% YoY, tempering optimism. The market sentiment is currently “Extreme Greed” (Fear‑Greed Index 89.86), but the technical indicators and debt load suggest caution. Overall, NMFC presents a blend of attractive yield and value metrics against a backdrop of earnings weakness and balance‑sheet strain. Investors should weigh the dividend appeal against the leverage and bearish price action when deciding on exposure.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • price below key moving averages
  • high dividend yield
  • elevated leverage

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • forward EPS turning positive
  • valuation multiples below industry averages
  • attractive dividend with low payout ratio

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • persistent high debt levels
  • stable cash flow generation
  • sector positioning in defensive growth assets

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-19.70%
Profit Margin-18.65%
P/E Ratio7.6
ROE-4.78%
ROA5.61%
Debt/Equity126.53
P/B Ratio0.7
Op. Cash Flow$676.5M
Free Cash Flow$94.3M
Industry P/E16.8

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI47.3
Support$7.75
Resistance$8.16
MA 20$7.97
MA 50$8.13
MA 200$8.86
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index89.86

Valuation

Target Price$8.54
Upside/Downside7.44%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield15.24%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.52
Volatility21.82%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.