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NL:NYSENL Industries, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-07-10 - not real-time

$6.07

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

NLI Holdings is trading just above its 20‑day moving average and comfortably beneath its 200‑day average, indicating a neutral technical stance with a slight upside bias. The RSI hovers around the 50‑mark, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions, while the MACD histogram has turned positive, delivering a bullish signal despite a modest price gap. Volume is on the rise, supporting the technical optimism, yet the stock exhibits extremely high 30‑day volatility and a beta well below the market, underscoring pronounced price swings in a relatively defensive market environment. On the fundamentals side, the company offers an **exceptionally high dividend yield** that dwarfs the industry norm, but the payout ratio exceeds 100%, raising doubts about sustainability. Valuation metrics tell a mixed story: a forward P/E of roughly 7 versus an industry average above 30 points to a potential value opportunity, and the discounted cash‑flow model places fair value modestly above the current price, hinting at slight undervaluation. However, the firm reports a negative profit margin and a negative ROE, reflecting ongoing earnings challenges despite solid cash generation and a strong balance sheet with minimal debt.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish MACD crossover with rising volume
  • High short‑term volatility and proximity to support
  • Dividend yield attractiveness offset by unsustainable payout

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • DCF fair value above current price suggesting upside
  • Forward P/E dramatically lower than industry peers
  • Improving cash flow and minimal leverage

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Potential for dividend policy normalization
  • Value‑oriented valuation with room for price appreciation
  • Diversified global footprint mitigating single‑market risk

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth0.70%
Profit Margin-21.53%
P/E Ratio7.1
ROE-7.95%
ROA3.28%
Debt/Equity0.38
P/B Ratio0.8
Op. Cash Flow$7.5M
Free Cash Flow$15.5M
Industry P/E31.2

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI49.4
Support$5.63
Resistance$6.35
MA 20$6.01
MA 50$6.25
MA 200$5.96
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index94.61

Valuation

Fair Value$6.33
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield6.56%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.75
Volatility82.29%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskHigh

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.